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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $379.40EOD only

Max Pain

$387.50

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.81

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+8.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.42

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT mildly bullish with dealer short gamma amplifying moves. Spot below max pain near support suggests drift to $390-$395. Mixed flow caps confidence. Confidence moderate.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -0.5 spot 3.9% below MP; +1 low VIX.

Supports: Short gamma, 362 support, price ranges, low VIX.
Conflicts: Below MP, mixed flow, 395-397 resistance.

📊GEX -$18.7M short gamma; trending persists.

📌Max pain $395 6/18 offers target.

⚠️Mixed flow and normal vol cap momentum.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol; VIX 16 supports moderate volatility.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma -$18.7M; trending conditions; flip risk minimal.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; balanced put/call ratio.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 3.9% below max pain $395; pinning pressure up.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Support 362, resistance 395; trending gamma but mixed flow.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$368.52$390.27

Test $390 resistance; recovery to $395 unlikely.

Next 2 weeks

$361.87$396.92

Consolidation toward 395-397; support 362 holds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $395 (2026-06-18); $388 (2026-06-22); $385 (2026-06-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $368.52/$390.27

Support: $361.87

Resistance: $395.00 · $396.92

Structural: Support 361.87, resistance 395.0 (max pain 6/18), 396.92 (2w high). No gamma flip.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-18.7M

DEX: +94.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$18.7M short gamma; no put OI concentration below 30%.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV slightly rich vs VIX 16, reflecting tech uncertainty.

Term structure: Normal contango; front-end elevated near events.

Skew: Put skew elevated; sell put spreads in near term.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative ~-99.5M with call-dominated volume; net sold indicates bearish stance.

Directional prints: 15.3 call 377.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 177.6: massive new call activity; likely sold (net negative premium). Bearish. 19.4 call 380 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 46.4: high relative volume; sold calls consistent with net premium. Bearish. 7.4 call 382.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 31.1: significant new positions; likely sold calls. Bearish.

Unusual: 31.7 put 345 OTM 2026-07-24 — High IV 31.7, vol/OI 14.0: longer-dated OTM put; possible hedge or bearish bet. 6.8 put 377.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 14.7: high put volume; could be protective or bearish but likely sold (low IV). 19.7 call 385 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 11.4: moderate unusual call activity; probably sold given bearish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market reversal after QQQ rally

!Break below 362 support

!Earnings risk not priced

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $370.00/$360.00 put spread Why now: Net negative premium and put selling support aligns with drift view; defined risk on downside.	Max loss if spot breaks below short strike (likely 370) before expiration.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $390.00/$395.00 call spread Why now: Dealer short gamma may amplify upside moves; defined risk suits moderate conviction.	Max loss of net debit if spot fails to rally above long strike.

Top Plays

Bull Call on Drift

Buy 2026-07-10 $390.00/$395.00 call spread

Buy $390 call, sell $395 call for net debit, profit above $395.

Why this play: Directly targets $390-$395 with better R/R and aligns with dealer short gamma.

Debit: $1.71-$2.09

Max loss: $2.09

BE: $392.09

Mgmt: Exit if below $362 or IV spike.

Moderate bullish, capped risk.

Put Credit for Income

Sell 2026-07-10 $370.00/$360.00 put spread

Sell $370 put, buy $360 put for credit, profit above $370.

Why this play: Supports drift with defined risk but lower R/R and less direct upside.

Credit: $2.63-$3.22

Max loss: $6.78

BE: $366.78

Mgmt: Roll near $370 or close pre-earnings.

Neutral-bullish seeking income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT closes above $385 → Buy $390/$395 call spread for net debit 1.71-2.09

IFIF MSFT closes above $370 → Sell $370/$360 put spread for credit 2.63-3.22

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT closes below $361.87 → Exit both positions at market

Tactical Summary

Moderate bullish drift to $390-$395. Enter bull call above $385, put credit above $370. Exit both if support breaks at $361.87. Manage put spread near $372 if needed. Confidence moderate.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.