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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $365.46EOD only

Max Pain

$380.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.38

2.6% from close

Price Gap

+14.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.41

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT exhibits moderate bullish drift amid dealer long delta and trending gamma. Spot below max pain levels suggests upward bias towards $372-$380 expiries. Confidence moderate at 6.5.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 6.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19 = 6.5

Supports: Dealer long delta (+93.4M DEX), trending gamma, VIX elevated
Conflicts: Negative GEX, mixed flow, spot far from MP

⚠️Negative GEX -$33.4M amplifies directional moves; trending gamma supports momentum

📈DEX +93.4M shares positive, dealers long delta

📊Spot below max pain pins ($372-$380) implies upward gravitation

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol Normal; VIX 19 slightly elevated but not extreme

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma Trending; negative GEX -33.4M amplifies moves; no flip risk

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow Mixed; net premium unclear

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP by ~5-6%; implies potential upward drift

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple expiries within next week; max pain levels act as attractors; spot below suggests gamma hedging may push price up

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$346.00$359.65

Expected drift towards upper bound $359.65

Next 1 week

$339.05$366.60

Max pain at $372 above range; potential breakout

Next 2 weeks

$332.53$373.13

Wider range; resistance at $373.13

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $378 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29); $372 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $346.00/$359.65; 1w $339.05/$366.60

Support: $332.53

Resistance: $373.13 · $377.50

Structural: Max pain pins: $378 (Jun26), $380 (Jun29), $372 (Jul1). EM guardrails: 2d $346/$359.65, 1w $339.05/$366.60. Support 332.53, resistance 373.13, 377.5.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-33.4M

DEX: +93.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -33.4M short gamma; DEX +93.4M long delta. No gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Based on VIX 19, MSFT IV likely near historical norm, not rich/cheap relative to sector

Term structure: No explicit data; expected backwardation near weekly expiries

Skew: No actionable opportunity from given data; consider vertical spreads on pin action

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$517M, net selling; all directional prints show selling.

Directional prints: 36.8 call 360 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 260.3, OI 145; aggressive call selling; preferred read: sold. 37.9 put 335 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 36.8, OI 177; put selling; preferred read: sold. 37.8 call 365 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 19297, vol/OI 13; call selling; preferred read: sold.

Unusual: 36.8 call 360 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 260.3 extreme; likely sold. 34.8 call 350 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 56.9; unusual call volume; likely sold. 37.9 put 335 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 36.8; unusual put activity; likely sold.

Risks & Catalysts

!SPY/QQQ momentum reversal

!Spot fails to reach max pain

!Negative GEX acceleration

!Flow turns bearish

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-31 $380.00/$395.00 call spread Why now: Dealer long delta and trending gamma support upward bias; defined risk for earnings.	Upside cap; max loss if spot reverses below short strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $325.00/$310.00 put spread Why now: Put selling dominates flow; high IV supports credit; defined risk below $360.	Max loss if spot drops below short put; gamma risk near earnings.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $385.00 call Why now: Low put/call flow disparity and high IV offer cheap premium for upside tail.	Time decay accelerates if spot stays flat; max loss of premium.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $380.00/$395.00 call spread

Captures moderate upside with limited risk.

Why this play: Best aligns with upward bias and defined risk for earnings.

Debit: $2.70-$3.30

Max loss: $3.30

BE: $383.30

Mgmt: Close at target or expiry; roll if invalidated below support.

Traders seeking defined risk bullish play on MSFT earnings.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $325.00/$310.00 put spread

Sells puts to collect credit with defined risk below support.

Why this play: Capitalizes on bullish sentiment with premium collection.

Credit: $2.97-$3.63

Max loss: $11.37

BE: $321.37

Mgmt: Manage for theta decay; roll if spot approaches short strike.

Income-focused traders confident in downside protection.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-31 $385.00 call

Buys out-of-the-money call for leveraged upside exposure.

Why this play: Speculative upside tail with cheap premium due to high IV.

Debit: $7.60-$9.29

Max loss: $9.29

BE: $394.29

Mgmt: Set stop loss; consider closing before earnings if IV crush.

Aggressive traders expecting high volatility event.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above 332.53 and breaks above 373.13 → Enter msft_bull_call_spread_001: buy 2026-07-31 $380/$395 call spread for $2.70-$3.30

IFSpot pulls back to near support 332.53 but holds above it → Enter msft_put_credit_spread_002: sell 2026-07-31 $325/$310 put spread for $2.97-$3.63

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below 332.53 invalidation level → Exit msft_bull_call_spread_001 and msft_long_call_003, close put credit spread if open

Tactical Summary

MSFT bullish into Jul29 earnings; support 332.53, resistance 373.13/377.5; max pain $372-$380; dealer long delta. Trade defined-risk bull call spread or put credit spread. Monitor invalidation below 332.53.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.