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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $373.94EOD only

Max Pain

$375.00

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.88

1.6% from close

Price Gap

+1.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.41

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT has a slight bullish bias toward $375 max pain amid normal vol and positive dealer delta, but negative gamma and mixed flow warrant caution. Expect drift higher into expiration with resistance at $375, risk below $356.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 from strong GEX/flow alignment (negative gamma with trend); +0.5 from VIX near 19. Total 7.5.

Supports: Positive dealer DEX (+91M shares), normal vol, max pain pin at $375, support at $345.
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$25M), mixed flow, QQQ -0.42% headwind, spot below resistance.

🟢Dealer delta-positive (+91M shares) supports bullish drift.

🟡Negative GEX (-$25M) can amplify volatility; hedge needed.

🔴QQQ down 0.42% today; sector headwind.

📊Max pain at $375 acts as magnet; probable target.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is Normal relative to 20d HV and VIX at 18.6, indicating no extreme fear or complacency.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX is -$25.2M, negative gamma regime. Dealers are short gamma, amplifying moves. No near gamma flip within 30% below spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed: negative GEX but positive DEX (+91.4M shares). Dealers net long delta but short gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is below $375 max pain; upward drift expected but negative gamma may cause overshoot.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Distinct max pain pins on Jun 24,26,29 create event-driven gamma dynamics. Normal vol and short gamma suit short-term window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$356.08$374.83

Upward drift toward $375 max pain; range $356-$375.

Next 1 week

$353.48$377.43

Higher probability to reach $375-$380; support at $353.

Next 2 weeks

$345.23$385.68

Potential to test $385.68 resistance; floor at $345.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $375 (2026-06-24); $380 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $356.08/$374.83; 1w $353.48/$377.43

Support: $345.23

Resistance: $375.00 · $385.68

Structural: Support at 345.23 (2W low); resistance at 375 (max pain) and 385.68 (2W high). EM guardrails: 2d $356/$375, 1w $353/$377.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-25.2M

DEX: +91.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$25.2M GEX) with positive DEX (+91.4M shares). Short gamma implies hedging pressure that can intensify moves; no flip zone within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV pricing in line with VIX ~18.6; not rich or cheap vs sector. Normal vol environment.

Term structure: Front-end IV elevated due to weekly expiry (Jun 24,26,29); back month flatter. Contango typical.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls near max pain; consider put spreads if bearish, or call spreads for upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $204.8M with P/C vol ratio 0.58 and OI ratio 0.41, indicating net selling.

Directional prints: 20.3 call 375 OTM 2026-06-24 — High vol/OI suggests aggressive selling of upside calls, bearish. 23.2 put 370 ITM 2026-06-24 — Large put volume likely long puts, bearish. 47.4 put 375 ITM 2026-06-24 — ITM put buying with high IV, bearish protection.

Unusual: 8.7 call 367.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Extreme vol/OI on near-the-money call with low IV, possibly retail buying or closing. 11.9 call 370 OTM 2026-06-24 — High vol/OI on OTM call, likely sold by institutions. 20.9 put 367.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Moderate vol/OI on OTM put, note only OTM put, unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX can cause sharp reversals if spot breaks support.

!Mixed flow reduces directional conviction.

!QQQ weakness and broader tech selloff.

!Pin action may fail if macro deterioration.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $375.00/$380.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk, aligns with bullish bias, uses after-earnings expiration, protects against Gamma at $375.	Upside capped at $375; reversal from negative gamma could lose value.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $345.00/$340.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk, bullish-neutral, after-earnings expiration, premium collection above support.	Spot drop below 350 causes max loss; negative gamma could accelerate move.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread $375/$380

Buy 2026-07-31 $375.00/$380.00 call spread

Buy $375/$380 call spread to capture upside drift with capped risk.

Why this play: Directly aligns with bullish bias toward $375 max pain, defined risk, after-earnings expiration.

Debit: $1.64-$2.01

Max loss: $2.01

BE: $377.01

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or hold to expiration if near $380.

Bullish traders expecting gradual rise to $375 by expiration.

Put Credit Spread $345/$340

Sell 2026-07-31 $345.00/$340.00 put spread

Sell $345/$340 put spread to profit from price staying above $345.

Why this play: Bullish-neutral, premium collection above support, defined risk, after-earnings.

Credit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $343.60

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% max profit or hold to expiry if above $345.

Conservative traders wanting income with wide safety margin.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFMSFT price breaks and holds above $356 for two consecutive hourly closes. → Buy 2026-07-31 $375/$380 call spread at $1.64-$2.01.

IFMSFT price remains above $345 support for one full trading day. → Sell 2026-07-31 $345/$340 put spread at $1.15-$1.40.

Exit Triggers

EXITBull call spread reaches 50% max profit (~$1.50). → Close the bull call spread.

EXITMSFT price breaks below $345.23 invalidation level. → Exit both bull call and put credit spreads immediately.

EXITPut credit spread reaches 50% max profit (~$0.70). → Buy back the put credit spread.

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish bias into July 31 earnings. Key support $345.23, resistance $375. Favor bull call spread $375/$380 for upside drift and put credit spread $345/$340 for income. Manage risk at $345.23 invalidation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.