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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $379.40EOD only

Max Pain

$387.50

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.81

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+8.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.42

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bullish near term due to max pain pinning at $380 and negative gamma amplifying upside moves; but spot below MP and mixed flow temper conviction. Low VIX supports stable drift.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base5 + strongGEX/flow alignment(+2) - spot3.3%fromMP(-0.5) + lowVIX(+1) => 7.5

Supports: Negative dealer gamma; low VIX; max pain clustering $380-$390
Conflicts: Spot below MP; mixed flow; VIX could rise

📌Max pain $380 for 6/22 expiry pulls spot upward

⚠️GEX -$2.2M negative gamma amplifies directional moves

🌊VIX 17.28 low; term structure flat; no vol opportunity

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV aligns with VIX~17, normal range, no extreme skew

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$2.2M negative gamma; dealers hedge increasingly, amplifying moves

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; no dominant premium direction, balanced put/call activity

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain $380; upward pinning pressure as expiry nears

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple expiries (6/22,24,26) with max pain clustering suggest short-term pinning

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$359.46$375.21

Max pain $380 pull; 2d EM $359-$375

Next 1 week

$354.56$380.11

Range $354-$380; resistance at $380, support $354

Next 2 weeks

$346.64$388.04

Wider $346-$388; downside risk if $380 fails

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-22); $382 (2026-06-24); $390 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $359.46/$375.21; 1w $354.56/$380.11

Support: $346.64

Resistance: $380.00 · $388.04

Structural: Max pain $380 (6/22), $382 (6/24), $390 (6/26); 2d EM $359.46-$375.21, 1w EM $354.56-$380.11; support $346.64, resistance $380/$388.04

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.2M

DEX: +89.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$2.2M negative gamma; DEX +89.1M shares long; no gamma flip within 30% of spot

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 17.28, no rich/cheap disparity

Term structure: Flat with slight contango; no event kinks

Skew: Skew neutral; no actionable vol structure opportunity

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$136.9M (puts dominate), bearish flow.

Directional prints: 6.8 call 370 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol 52.9K vs OI 789 (67.2x). Likely sold calls (bearish) as net premium negative. 16.8 call 375 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol 30.2K vs OI 689 (43.9x). Likely sold calls (bearish). 13.5 put 370 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol 37.7K vs OI 1419 (26.6x). Likely bought puts (bearish).

Unusual: 6.8 call 370 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol 52.9K vs OI 789 (67.2x) - aggressive new activity; bearish if sold. 16.8 call 375 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol 30.2K vs OI 689 (43.9x) - similar profile; bearish if sold. 6.1 put 367.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol 28.6K vs OI 708 (40.3x) - bearish if bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below 2d EM $359.46

!Resistance at $380 holds, preventing upside

!Gamma amplification leads to overshoot

!OPEX pinning fails; spot moves away from max pain

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $400.00/$435.00 call spread Why now: Neutral-bullish bias, max pain at $380, low VIX supports stable drift.	Spot below short strike or time decay if no move.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $395.00/$415.00 call spread Why now: Neutral-bullish bias, max pain at $380, low vol supports drift up.	Spot breaks below $359.46 invalidates.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $340.00/$330.00 put spread Why now: Low vol, support at $350-$345, limited downside from current levels.	Unexpected drop below $345.
Long call	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-31 $400.00 call Why now: Low vol, potential rally to $390+ on earnings catalyst.	Premium decay if stock stays flat.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread $400/$435

Buy 2026-07-31 $400.00/$435.00 call spread

Buy $400 call, sell $435 call. Profit from upward drift with limited risk.

Why this play: Highest upside potential from max pain pinning and low vol drift toward $400+. Outranks other bull spread due to wider profit zone.

Debit: $4.57-$5.58

Max loss: $5.58

BE: $405.58

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $346.64 invalidation. Target near $435 or expiration.

Aggressive bullish traders seeking asymmetric upside.

Bull Call Spread $395/$415

Buy 2026-07-31 $395.00/$415.00 call spread

Buy $395 call, sell $415 call. Captures moderate upside with defined risk.

Why this play: Narrower spread with lower cost, suits risk-averse bullish traders. Lower breakeven than rank 1.

Debit: $3.62-$4.43

Max loss: $4.43

BE: $399.43

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $346.64. Consider rolling up if spot approaches $415.

Moderate bullish traders comfortable with lower leverage.

Put Credit Spread $340/$330

Sell 2026-07-31 $340.00/$330.00 put spread

Sell $340 put, buy $330 put. Premium capture with buffer below spot.

Why this play: Defined risk bullish play with support at $340-$345. Suitable for neutral-bullish outlook with limited downside.

Credit: $2.25-$2.75

Max loss: $7.25

BE: $337.25

Mgmt: Close if spot drops near $340. Manage gamma risk near expiry.

Defensive traders seeking income with minimal directional exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT holds above $359.46 (2d EM) and RSI(14) > 55 → THEN enter Bull Call Spread $400/$435 at $4.57-$5.58 (top-ranked)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF MSFT rallies above $415 → THEN close 50% of $395/$415 spread; roll up $400/$435 to $430/$465 or close

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT closes below $346.64 → THEN exit all bullish positions including $400/$435, $395/$415, and $340/$330 spreads

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish, max pain $380 supports drift up. Entry on strength above 2d EM low with RSI >55. Invalidation at $346.64. Resistance at $380/$388.04. Low vol favors defined-risk spreads. Monitor for gamma squeeze overshoot.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.