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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $367.34EOD only

Max Pain

$382.50

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.88

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+15.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.41

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT gamma pinning near $375 Max Pain with positive dealer GEX ($65.5M) and spot 0.3% from MP. Mixed flow suggests hedging amid broad tech selloff. Neutral-to-slightly bullish near-term, thesis tied to weekly expiration.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning), +1 spot at MP, +0.5 VIX moderate; -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed flow). Final 6.5.

Supports: Gamma pinning at $375, positive dealer gamma ($65.5M), spot at MP, moderate VIX 19.5.
Conflicts: Broad tech selloff (QQQ -3.29%), mixed flow, resistance at $375 and $394.82.

📌Gamma pin at $375 with $65.5M GEX supports near-term price stability.

📉QQQ weakness adds downside risk, but MSFT vol normal suggests relative resilience.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV relative to recent range; VIX 19.5 moderate, MSFT not spiking despite QQQ drop.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: +$65.5M GEX, spot near MP. No close gamma flip.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: hedging adjustments, not strong directional.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $375 (MP 6/24), 0.3% from MP. Strong pinning potential.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiry; pinning dynamics dominate near-term. Multi-week ranges provide context.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$368.07$379.82

Pinning at $375; range $368-$380.

Next 1 week

$361.52$386.37

Post-expiry drift potential; support $361.

Next 2 weeks

$353.07$394.82

Broader range $353-$395; wait for breakout.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $375 (2026-06-24); $382 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $368.07/$379.82; 1w $361.52/$386.37

Support: $353.07

Resistance: $375.00 · $394.82

Structural: Support $353.07, Resistance $375 (MP) and $394.82 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $368/$380, 1w $361/$386.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+65.5M

DEX: +90.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$65.5M GEX, +90.6M DEX), pinning near-term expiry. No gamma flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV in line with VIX at 19.5; not rich vs sector. Moderate vol environment.

Term structure: Slight backwardation near weekly expiry, flattening further out.

Skew: Put skew elevated post selloff but no extreme. Opportunity: sell puts at support for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$33.8M with low put/call vol ratio 0.37 suggests net bearish flow (put buying or call selling).

Directional prints: 27.3 call 375 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 19.7x; aggressive. Bought bullish, sold bearish; net premium leans bearish. 26.8 put 372.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 16.4x; ITM if spot>372.5. Bought puts bearish, sold puts bullish; net premium favors bearish.

Unusual: 59.4 call 425 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 8.6x, high IV 59.4%; far OTM lottery. Speculative buy/sell; not strongly directional. 27.7 call 377.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 18.9x; similar to 375C. Bearish bias from net premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside break of $368 if QQQ selloff persists

!Upside break above $380 on positive catalyst

!Gamma flip absent but large moves could trigger dealer hedging

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $380.00/$385.00 call wing Why now: MSFT pinned near max pain, flow mixed, dealer GEX positive; iron condor decays time.	Breakout beyond 365-385 range.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $355.00/$345.00 put spread Why now: Gamma pinning near $375 and positive dealer GEX support limited downside; near-term expiration captures theta decay.	Downside break below $360 if selloff persists.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $395.00/$415.00 call spread Why now: Spot near Max Pain and positive GEX, but net bearish flow suggests hedging; slight upside potential on any bounce.	Upside capped at short strike; premium loss if spot stays below long strike.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$340.00 put wing and $395.00/$425.00 call wing Why now: Gamma pinning and positive dealer GEX suggest limited movement; net bearish flow may cap upside but downside support strong.	Unexpected large move outside wings due to market selloff or catalyst.

Top Plays

Iron Condor near Max Pain

Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $380.00/$385.00 call wing

Sell 370/365 put and 380/385 call wings for credit, benefiting from low realized volatility.

Why this play: Highest probability given gamma pinning near $375 and positive dealer GEX; tight wings decay time efficiently.

Credit: $3.94-$4.81

Max loss: $0.19

BE: 365.19 / 384.81

Mgmt: Hold to expiry; monitor for breach of short strikes.

Neutral to slightly bullish traders expecting limited movement.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $355.00/$345.00 put spread

Sell 355/345 put spread, expressing limited downside risk with support near Max Pain.

Why this play: Downside protection from positive GEX and gamma pinning; near-term expiration captures theta.

Credit: $1.57-$1.92

Max loss: $8.08

BE: $353.08

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches invalidation level $353.07.

Slightly bullish traders seeking defined risk.

Wide Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$340.00 put wing and $395.00/$425.00 call wing

Sell 360/340 put wing and 395/425 call wing, collecting larger premium for wider profit zone.

Why this play: Broader range accommodates potential volatility while still profiting from pinning; higher credit compensates.

Credit: $6.93-$8.46

Max loss: $21.54

BE: 351.54 / 403.46

Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot moves beyond short strikes.

Traders expecting range-bound move but wanting higher credit.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFMSFT remains near $375 Max Pain within $368-$380 2d range → Enter iron condor: sell 370/365 put and 380/385 call for credit up to $4.81

IFMSFT holds above $353.07 support → Enter put credit spread: sell 355/345 put for credit up to $1.92

IFMSFT stays within $360-$395 → Enter wide iron condor: sell 360/340 put and 395/425 call for credit up to $8.46

Adjustment Triggers

ADJMSFT breaks above $380 or below $370 (ic1 short strikes) → Adjust or close iron condor wings

Exit Triggers

EXITMSFT approaches $353.07 invalidation level → Close put credit spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-slightly bullish bias near $375 Max Pain with positive dealer GEX. Key guardrails: 2d $368-$380, 1w $361-$386. Top play: iron condor near MP for theta decay. If support holds above $353, put credit spread. For wider range, wide iron condor. Exit on downside break or short strike breach.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.