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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $390.74EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.91
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+9.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSFT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT is range-bound near $398 max pain with positive dealer gamma. Mixed flow and below-MP spot create tug-of-war. Near-term pinning likely, but lack of catalyst limits directional conviction.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5, adjusted +1 for GEX/flow pinning, +0.5 for spot proximity to MP, +1 for VIX support, -1 for mixed flow contradiction. Net 6.5.
Supports: Gamma pinning at $398, positive dealer delta (+88.8M shares), VIX moderate.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, spot below max pain but above support.
🔒Gamma pinning at $398 anchors near-term price.
📊Mixed flow and below-MP spot create no clear bias.
💰Positive dealer gamma (+$18M) supports range-bound behavior.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV is Normal relative to history; VIX at 17.68 indicates moderate implied volatility.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma is Pinning with +$18M GEX and max pain at $398, attracting price toward expiry.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow is Mixed with balanced premium, no directional conviction.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot is ~1.7% below max pain ($398), typical pinning dynamic with upside potential.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Options expiry on 2026-06-12 drives short-term pinning; duration limited to next 2 days.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$383.83$397.65
Pinned to $398; support $383.83, resistance $397.65.
Next 1 week
$379.34$402.14
Range $379.34-$402.14; breakout needed for direction.
Next 2 weeks
$371.64$409.84
Resistance at $409.84-$420; momentum lacking.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $398 (2026-06-12); $400 (2026-06-15); $402 (2026-06-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $383.83/$397.65; 1w $379.34/$402.14
Support: $371.64
Resistance: $397.50 · $409.84 · $420.00
Structural: Max pain pin: $398. Resistance: $397.5, $409.84, $420. Support: $371.64. EM guardrails: 2d $383.83/$397.65; 1w $379.34/$402.14.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+18.0M

DEX: +88.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma (+$18M GEX) and long delta (+88.8M shares), providing stability and attracting price to $398 max pain. No gamma flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV roughly in line with VIX (17.68), not cheap or rich; moderate environment.

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated due to expiry; flattens in later months.

Skew: Skew typical; opportunity in short-dated strangles given pinning near $398.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium (-$27.1M) with low put/call volume ratio (0.41) suggests net call selling.

Directional prints: 37 call 385 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 52.8, low OI, high IV; likely opening; if bought bullish, if sold bearish; preferred bearish (net selling). 45.1 call 382.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 37.5, high IV; likely opening; if bought bullish, if sold bearish; preferred bearish (net selling).

Unusual: 37 call 385 ITM 2026-06-12 — Extreme vol/OI 52.8; low IV but high relative to VIX; aggressive call selling likely. 45.1 call 382.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 37.5, high IV; unusual size; likely call selling (bearish) given net premium. 6.5 call 390 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 28.6, very low IV; likely sold (bearish) due to low premium; high volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breakdown below $383.83 support.
!Unexpected news during expiry.
!Gamma flip if large put OI emerges below spot.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-07-24 $365.00/$340.00 put wing and $425.00/$465.00 call wing
Why now: Positive dealer gamma and mixed flow suggest compressed volatility; iron condor profits from time decay with defined risk.
Unexpected breakout past wings leads to max loss; earnings risk if held through.
Put credit spreadWeak
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$330.00 put spread
Why now: Net call selling indicates bearish flow but spot near support; put credit spread profits if support holds.
Break below $383.83 support triggers max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (71%).
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-24 $435.00/$470.00 call spread
Why now: Call selling dominant in flow; cap upside risk with defined spread.
Upside catalyst could break through resistance.

Top Plays

#1
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $365.00/$340.00 put wing and $425.00/$465.00 call wing
Sell put/call wings to profit from time decay.
Why this play: Best range-bound play with positive dealer gamma.
Credit: $7.61-$9.31
Max loss: $30.69
BE: 355.69 / 434.31
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain.
Traders expecting low volatility.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $435.00/$470.00 call spread
Cap upside risk and earn credit.
Why this play: Aligns with net call selling flow.
Credit: $2.43-$2.97
Max loss: $32.03
BE: $437.97
Mgmt: Exit if spot exceeds 397.5.
Bearish-leaning traders.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$330.00 put spread
Bullish spread betting on support holds.
Why this play: Less aligned but support play if sentiment shifts.
Credit: $3.20-$3.92
Max loss: $26.08
BE: $356.08
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks 371.64. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (71%).
Contrarian bullish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF MSFT trades above 371.64 and below 397.5 → Sell IC1: $365/$340 put wing and $425/$465 call wing for credit 7.61-9.31
IFIF MSFT approaches 397.5 resistance → Sell CCS1: $435/$470 call spread for credit 2.43-2.97
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot exceeds 397.5 → Close CCS1

Tactical Summary

MSFT range-bound near $398 max pain, positive dealer gamma. Neutral near-term. Enter IC1 for range, CCS1 on resistance test, exit CCS1 above 397.5. Key support 371.64.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.