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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $390.74EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.91
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+9.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSFT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
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Outlook

Bullish bias with upside potential from below-max-pain positioning and strong dealer long delta. Short-term vol normal, gamma trending suggests buyers in control. Resistance at $410 max pain, support $369.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned -0.5 spot vs MP +0.5 VIX 19 = 7.0. Net +2 to base matches pre-computed.
Supports: Dealer long delta +88M shares, spot below max pain $410, normal VIX 19.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, spot 4.8% below MP, resistance at $410.
📈Spot $395 well below max pain $410; pin action favors upward drift.
🛡️GEX -$7.1M but no gamma flip; dealers long 88M shares.
⚖️Mixed flow; VIX 19 normal; range-bound until expiry.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
VIX 19, IV within normal range; stable vol environment.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending regime with $-7.1M GEX, no gamma flip risk in near term.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put/call volumes balanced, no extreme skew.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$395, 4.8% below max pain $410; upward drift likely toward expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly option expirations 6/12 and 6/15 create pin action around $410 with spot below.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$383.41$397.26
Below max pain, dealer support; test upper guardrail $397.
Next 1 week
$376.31$404.36
Pin to $410 resistance; strong dealer delta supports grind higher.
Next 2 weeks
$369.46$411.21
Wider range $369-$411; structural uncertainty beyond expiry.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $410 (2026-06-12); $408 (2026-06-15); $415 (2026-06-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $383.41/$397.26; 1w $376.31/$404.36
Support: $369.46
Resistance: $410.00 · $411.21 · $420.00
Structural: Max pain $410 (6/12), $408 (6/15), $415 (6/17). Support $369.46, resistance $410-420. EM guardrails: 2d $383.41/$397.26; 1w $376.31/$404.36.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.1M

DEX: +88.2M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: $-7.1M GEX, +88.2M DEX, no gamma flip. Dealers net long delta; gamma trending low magnitude but supportive.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 19; not rich or cheap. Neutral for positioning.

Term structure: Flat near-term with slight backwardation around weekly expiries 6/12 and 6/15.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls; consider bullish call spreads for expiry drift.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$236M, P/C ratio 0.67, bearish bias despite call volume; large call buying offset by puts.

Directional prints: 31.9 call 395 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 83.3, volume 20.5k vs OI 246, aggressive new call buying preferred over selling, bullish lean. 30.2 call 390 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 51.4, volume 25.7k vs OI 500, likely buy-side pressure, bullish read. 31.9 put 382.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 25.2, volume 10.9k vs OI 432, unusual put buying suggests bearish hedge.

Unusual: 33.9 call 400 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 24k, OI 984, vol/OI 24.4, OTM calls with massive volume; likely bullish speculation. 33.5 put 377.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 5.7k, OI 312, vol/OI 18.2, OTM puts bought, bearish insurance. 31.8 put 387.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 14.6k, OI 1.3k, vol/OI 11.5, elevated put volume suggests hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to hold $383.41 (2d lower guardrail); gamma selling if spot breaks above $410; mixed flow caps upside.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $435.00/$465.00 call spread
Why now: Flow shows aggressive call buying; defined risk limits downside
Capped upside if spot stays below long strike; time decay if no move
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $435.00 call
Why now: Upside from below max pain positioning; limited downside
Time decay if no move; vol contraction post-earnings
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-08-21 $350.00/$320.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish-neutral; high probability of OTM expiring
Assignment risk if spot drops below short strike; tail risk

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $435.00/$465.00 call spread
Buy $435/$465 call spread to capture upside from bullish flow.
Why this play: Aggressive call buying; defined risk limits downside.
Debit: $4.57-$5.58
Max loss: $5.58
BE: $440.58
Mgmt: Exit on break of $369.46 support or near max gain.
Traders seeking defined risk upside.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $435.00 call
Buy $435 call to directly benefit from upward move.
Why this play: Upside potential from below max pain positioning; limited downside.
Debit: $10.21-$12.49
Max loss: $12.49
BE: $447.49
Mgmt: Monitor vol and exit if spot falls below $369.46.
Aggressive traders seeking unlimited upside.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $350.00/$320.00 put spread
Sell $350/$320 put spread to collect premium in bullish environment.
Why this play: Bullish-neutral with high probability of OTM expiry.
Credit: $4.61-$5.64
Max loss: $24.36
BE: $344.36
Mgmt: Manage if spot nears $350.
Traders wanting high probability income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF MSFT holds above $376.31 (1w lower guardrail) and bounces → THEN enter Bull Call Spread (buy $435/$465 call spread) from candidates
IFIF MSFT breaks above $404.36 (1w upper guardrail) with volume → THEN enter Long Call (buy $435 call) from candidates
Exit Triggers
EXITIF MSFT breaks below $369.46 (support) → THEN exit all bullish positions (close Bull Call Spread, Long Call, and buy back Put Credit Spread)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias; resistance $410 max pain, support $369.46. Use defined-risk bull call spread or long call on strength. Manage risk if support breaks. Put credit spread neutral if spot above $350.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.