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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $403.41EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.86
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+11.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
MSFT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with downside to $379 support. Negative gamma and spot below max pain ($405) suggest dealer hedging will pressure price, but positive delta from DEX (+87M shares) may slow declines. Event-specific expiry concentration amplifies moves.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 7.5: GEX/flow strongly aligned (+2), spot 1.9% from MP (+0.5).
Supports: Negative gamma, below max pain, put-heavy flow, macro weakness.
Conflicts: Large positive DEX (+87M shares), strong support at $379.
⚡Negative gamma -$28.4M: dealer hedging can accelerate moves.
🎯Max pain $405 resistance; spot below reinforces bearish bias.
🛡️Support at $379 (EM guardrail) may hold; watch for bounce.
📅Event-specific: expiry pin action on 6/10, 6/12, 6/15.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol regime: MSFT IV likely elevated vs low vol history but inline with VIX 22.2 spike.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: dealer gamma negative (-$28.4M), no flip nearby; price sensitive to flow.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: put-heavy premium suggests bearish hedging, but DEX long shares.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP: spot ~$397 vs $405 max pain; bearish alignment.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentrated OI at $405, $415, $408 expiries (6/10-6/15) and no gamma flip within 30%.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$387.43$407.28
Test $392-$395 before pin to $405? Support $387.
Next 1 week
$385.23$409.48
Pressure toward $380-$385 if macro persists; resistance $408.
Next 2 weeks
$378.78$415.93
Support $379; break could target $378.78 low. Resistance $416.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-06-10); $415 (2026-06-12); $408 (2026-06-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $387.43/$407.28; 1w $385.23/$409.48
Support: $378.78
Resistance: $405.00 · $415.93
Structural: Max pain $405 (6/10), $415 (6/12), $408 (6/15). Support $378.78 (2w low), resistance $405 & $415.93. EM guardrails: 2d $387-$407, 1w $385-$409.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-28.4M

DEX: +87.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$28.4M (short gamma), DEX +87.3M shares (long delta). No gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV is cheap relative to VIX 22.2 given recent vol, but rich vs its own low vol history. Elevated IV may persist.

Term structure: Normal contango: front-month elevated due to OPEX; far-dated stable. Event kinks near 6/10, 6/12, 6/15.

Skew: Puts elevated vs calls: skew steep. Opportunity: sell put spreads below $380 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$48.8M reflects net selling; put premium accounts for majority of flow.

Directional prints: 38.9 call 580 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 122.5. High volume on deep OTM call at $580. Likely aggressive bullish opening, bought. Prefer bullish. 33.6 put 350 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 15.8. Unusual put buying at $350, bearish bet. Likely opening. Prefer bearish.

Unusual: 38.9 call 580 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 122.5, extreme. Deep OTM call, likely aggressive bullish opening. Bought. 17.1 call 402.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 24.3. Same-day OTM call, likely closing or opening short. Prefer closing long calls. 33.6 put 350 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 15.8. Unusual put buying at $350, bearish. Bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro reversal (SPY bounce) could squeeze shorts.
!Positive DEX counters negative gamma; large buying could push spot higher.
!Support at $379 may trigger short covering rally.
!Expiry pinning to $405 if spot rallies.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $375.00/$345.00 put spread
Why now: Negative gamma and dealer hedging pressure; buy put spread for defined risk.
Upside risk from macro reversal or short squeeze.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $375.00 put
Why now: Negative gamma and support breach to $379; defined risk with unlimited upside.
Theta decay and potential trend reversal.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $375.00/$345.00 put spread
Buy $375/$345 put spread to profit from downside to $379 support, with defined risk if bounce occurs.
Why this play: Cheaper defined-risk bearish play; limits downside from possible bounce.
Debit: $7.09-$8.66
Max loss: $8.66
BE: $366.34
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes above $405 (invalidation); take profits near target or 50% of max gain.
Trader expecting MSFT to decline but wary of short covering rally; wants cost-efficient bearish position.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $375.00 put
Buy $375 put to capture downside move; unlimited upside if stock drops further.
Why this play: Higher potential payout if downside materializes; direct bearish exposure.
Debit: $12.69-$15.51
Max loss: $15.51
BE: $359.49
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $405; consider rolling down if stock drops sharply.
Aggressive bear willing to pay premium for uncapped profit potential.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFMSFT closes below $385 → Buy 2026-08-21 $375/$345 put spread (BS1) near entry range $7.09-$8.66
IFMSFT breaks below $380 → Buy 2026-08-21 $375 put (LP1) near entry range $12.69-$15.51
Adjustment Triggers
ADJMSFT drops to $360 → Take 50% profit on BS1; hold LP1 for further downside
Exit Triggers
EXITMSFT rallies to $405 → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias into earnings; wait for breakdown below $385 to enter bear put spread or long put. Exit if spot reclaims $405. Positive DEX and macro risk warrant defined-risk approaches.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.