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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $403.41EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.86

1.4% from close

Price Gap

+11.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT tech sell-off but gamma pinning near $415 supports. Short-term bearish 2d, bullish 2w.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5, +1 pinning, -1 mixed flow, +0.5 VIX 20

Supports: Positive GEX, VIX moderate, support $385
Conflicts: Flow mixed, tech drag, spot below pin

🔒Pinning: max pain $415 Jun10

📉Tech sell-off QQQ -1.15%

⚖️Mixed flow no conviction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol Normal, VIX ~20, IV ~22%

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$63.6M, positive gamma pinning near $415-$422

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow mixed, no clear directional premium

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain $415, pinning upward

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain dates indicate event pinning

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$397.55$409.27

Below range, tech weakness

Next 1 week

$390.61$416.21

Pinning near max pain

Next 2 weeks

$385.44$421.39

Support $385, resistance $420

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $415 (2026-06-10); $422 (2026-06-12); $420 (2026-06-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $397.55/$409.27; 1w $390.61/$416.21

Support: $385.44

Resistance: $415.00 · $420.00 · $421.39

Structural: Max pain pins: $415 (Jun10), $422 (Jun12), $420 (Jun15). EM guardrails: 2d $397.55/$409.27, 1w $390.61/$416.21. Support $385.44, resistance $415, $420, $421.39.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+63.6M

DEX: +86.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$63.6M, DEX +86.0M shares, gamma pinning near $415-$422

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSFT IV ~22% near VIX 20, fairly priced

Term structure: Normal contango

Skew: Flat skew, no opportunity

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$23.1M (bearish), P/C vol ratio 0.49 (call-heavy), net negative suggests put premium dominates.

Directional prints: 27.1 put 397.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 14030 OI 455 (30.8x), heavy put activity; likely bought (bearish) but could be sold; prefer bought. 25 call 407.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 8440 OI 103 (81.9x), extreme call activity; likely bought (bullish) but could be sold; prefer bought. 24.7 call 405 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 8974 OI 201 (44.6x), heavy call activity; likely bought, but net bearish premium suggests caution.

Unusual: 25.2 call 410 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 18273 OI 606 (30.1x), unusual call volume; potential buy, but high IV skew. 26 call 412.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 13376 OI 797 (16.8x), elevated call volume; could be buying or spreading. 29.5 put 407.5 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol 6035 OI 430 (14.0x), notable put activity; bearish tilt but OI spike suggests new positions.

Risks & Catalysts

!Support break $385

!Gamma flip

!Macro drag

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $405.00/$385.00 put spread Why now: Short-term bearish bias; put debit spread caps risk while profiting from decline	Upside if stock holds above long put; time decay if move delayed
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $395.00 put Why now: Put flow heavy, net negative premium; long put captures downside without pin risk	Theta decay if stock does not drop quickly; requires precise timing

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $405.00/$385.00 put spread

Buy $405/$385 put spread for defined-risk downside

Why this play: Caps risk while profiting from short-term bearish move

Debit: $6.55-$8.00

Max loss: $8.00

BE: $397.00

Mgmt: Exit if MSFT holds above $415 or near expiration

Risk-conscious traders seeking leveraged bearish exposure

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-02 $395.00 put

Buy $395 put for unlimited profit potential if sell-off accelerates

Why this play: Captures full downside from heavy put flow

Debit: $7.54-$9.21

Max loss: $9.21

BE: $385.79

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $9.21 premium; consider rolling if thesis changes

Aggressive traders with high conviction

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSFT breaks below $397.55 (2d lower EM guardrail) with bearish momentum → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-06-26 $405/$385 put spread for $6.55-$8.00 debit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MSFT closes above $415.00 → Exit all bearish positions: close bear put spread and long put

Tactical Summary

Short-term bearish 2d bias. Use bear put spread for defined-risk downside. Invalidation at $415. Monitor gamma pinning near $415. Exit if price reclaims that level.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.