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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $418.57EOD only

Max Pain

$412.50

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.90

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-6.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT exhibits strong bullish bias with dealer gamma pinning near $415 and bullish flow. High confidence (9.0) from GEX/flow alignment and spot proximity to MP. Resistance at $420, break targets $436+.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17 supportive.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot at MP, VIX under 20
Conflicts: Resistance at $420 and $436; higher vol could disrupt pinning

📈Bullish flow: net premium positive, low P/C ratio

📍Spot at max pain: strong pinning support at $415

🟢GEX positive: dealer hedging supports upside

⚠️Resistance at $420: key breakout level

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal; VIX 17 supports calm conditions.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma positive $+182.8M, strong pinning near $415.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish; P/C ratio confirms bullish sentiment.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $415, 0.2% from max pain, pinning support.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to max pain expiries and strong dealer hedging around $415 create event-driven support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$411.39$420.66

Range $411.39-$420.66; resistance $420, support $415.

Next 1 week

$404.90$427.15

Range $404.90-$427.15; break of $420 targets $427.

Next 2 weeks

$395.65$436.40

Range $395.65-$436.40; support $395, resistance $436.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $415 (2026-05-26); $415 (2026-05-27); $415 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $411.39/$420.66; 1w $404.90/$427.15

Support: $415.00 · $395.65

Resistance: $420.00 · $436.40 · $450.00

Structural: Support $415 (max pain) and $395; resistance $420 (near-term) and $436-$450 (structure).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+182.8M

DEX: +80.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma ($+182.8M) and long delta (+80.3M shares); positive feedback for spot near $415.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV slightly elevated vs VIX but within normal range; not rich.

Term structure: Term structure modestly contango, no major kinks; front-end elevated around expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls; consider call spreads to express upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $108.6M, P/C volume 0.42, OI 0.46, strong bullish bias.

Directional prints: 12 call 415 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 86x, massive new call buying. Likely aggressive bullish bet. Preferred read: bought for upside. 3.6 call 417.5 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 85x, extreme OTM call volume. Lotto/expiry speculation. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 12 call 415 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 86.4, extreme ratio. Unusual print suggesting aggressive directional bet. 3.6 call 417.5 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 85.0, highly unusual. Near-zero premium OTM calls. 3.5 put 415 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 28.1, high put volume with low IV. Unusual selling or hedging. Preferred read: sold premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to break $420 could lead to retracement to $395.

!Broader market weakness or vol spike disrupts gamma pinning.

!Unexpected event could trigger rapid IV expansion.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00/$420.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk upside; high GEX pin near $415 supports break.	Capped profit; $420 resistance may cap short-term. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $415.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $410.00.; short_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $425.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $420.00.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-08-21 $400.00/$390.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma pin near $415; limited downside risk.	Risk if break below $400; vol expansion. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $405.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $400.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $395.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $390.00.
Long call	Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00 call Why now: High net call premium; breakout above $420 targets $436+.	Time decay if no move; IV compression possible. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $415.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $410.00.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $400.00 put Why now: Bullish bias with defined risk; premium credit offsets cost.	Uncapped upside but downside at $405; margin required. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $415.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $410.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $405.00 missing; used 2026-08-21 $400.00.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00/$420.00 call spread

Captures upside to $420 with limited cost.

Why this play: Defined risk aligned with pin and break target.

Debit: $4.61-$5.64

Max loss: $5.64

BE: $415.64

Mgmt: Exit near $420 or 14 DTE.

Risk-conscious bulls.

Long Call

Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00 call

Unlimited upside if $420 breaks.

Why this play: High net call premium supports breakout.

Debit: $27.83-$34.02

Max loss: $34.02

BE: $444.02

Mgmt: Trail stop at $415.

Aggressive bulls.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $400.00 put

Replaces short put with long call.

Why this play: Premium credit offsets cost; bullish bias.

Debit: $12.51-$15.29

Max loss: $400.00

BE: $400.00

Mgmt: Monitor pin near $415.

Margin-enabled bulls.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFMSFT holds above $415.00 at open → Enter Bull Call Spread: buy 2026-08-21 $410/$420 call spread for max debit $5.64

IFMSFT breaks above $420.00 with volume → Enter Long Call: buy 2026-08-21 $410 call for max debit $34.02

Adjustment Triggers

ADJMSFT fails to break $420 within 2 days → Close Bull Call Spread and enter Put Credit Spread: sell 2026-08-21 $400/$390 put spread for credit $3.19–$3.90

Exit Triggers

EXITMSFT drops below $415.00 → Close Bull Call Spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma pin near $415. Key support $415, resistance $420. Break above $420 targets $436+. Hold above $415 for bullish structure. Risk: failure at $420 leads to retracement to $395.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.