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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1841.18EOD only
Max Pain
$1775.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$47.05
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-66.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
ASML Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term: negative dealer gamma (GEX -$2.1M) and elevated vol (VIX 18.4) favor trending downside. Spot above max pain $1775 opens mean reversion risk. Mixed flow and long delta (DEX +4.7M) provide counterbalance. Key support $1700 ($1700 gamma flip), resistance $1900. Mult-week thesis with downside acceleration risk.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5: -1 GEX/flow conflict, +0.5 spot near MP, +0.5 VIX 18 => net 5.0.
Supports: Negative GEX, spot above MP, high vol, trending gamma regime.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, long delta DEX, resistance levels $1900/$1948.
📉Dealers short gamma: trending moves amplified
🎯Spot above max pain $1775; pin risk toward expiry
💰High vol regime: puts cheap relative to move? Consider hedges.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV elevated vs typical; VIX 18.4 provides macro tailwind for premiums.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma (GEX -$2.1M) supports trending; gamma flip ~$1700 (put OI concentration).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; no strong directional conviction from flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$1796 above max pain $1775; call resistance at $1900, $1948.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Wide price ranges and negative gamma allow multi-week swings; no single event dominates.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$1694.92$1894.32
Target $1775 max pain; resistance $1900 caps rallies.
Next 2 weeks
$1641.37$1947.87
Potential drop to $1700 gamma flip or $1650 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1775 (2026-06-26); $1760 (2026-07-02); $1715 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $1694.92/$1894.32
Support: $1775.00 · $1700.00 · $1650.00
Resistance: $1900.00 · $1947.87
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,382 (5.3% below spot)
Structural: Support $1775 (max pain), $1700 (gamma flip), $1650; Resistance $1900, $1948; Max pain pins $1775 (Jun26), $1760 (Jul2), $1715 (Jul10).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.1M

DEX: +4.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,382 (5.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$2.1M (short gamma), DEX +4.7M shares (long delta), gamma flip ~$1700 (5.3% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 18.4; high vol regime suggests elevated premiums.

Term structure: Likely contango with front-end elevated; weekly expiries show event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; bear put spreads offer defined risk in trending regime.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $97M, put/call volume ratio 1.65 indicating net put flow.

Directional prints: 19.1 call 1800 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2.5x OI; likely bought, bullish bet on upside. 35.2 put 1770 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1.7x OI; possibly bought as downside hedge.

Unusual: 19.1 call 1800 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2.5x OI; likely bought, bullish momentum. 44.4 call 1900 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1.9x OI; likely bought, speculative far OTM call. 35.2 put 1770 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1.7x OI; possibly bought as downside protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!VIX decline could compress IV, reducing payoff.
!Positive catalyst or flow surge could trigger short gamma rally to $1900.
!Long delta dealer hedging may provide support on dips.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00/$1760.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bearish debit spread using post-earnings expiration to capture downside with elevated IV offsetting theta.
VIX contraction compresses payoff; rally to $1900 from short gamma squeeze. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00 put
Why now: Convex downside exposure to exploit potential sharp decline post-earnings. Limited cost upfront.
IV collapse reduces payoff; rally to $1900 from short gamma squeeze. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00/$1760.00 put spread
Bearish debit spread capturing downside post-earnings with limited loss.
Why this play: Defined-risk using elevated IV to offset theta; better risk/reward than long put given uncertain timing.
Debit: $26.42-$32.29
Max loss: $32.29
BE: $1787.71
Mgmt: Close if spot rallies above $1900 or near expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00 put
Unlimited downside exposure to exploit potential trend acceleration.
Why this play: Convex downside for higher payoff if sharp decline occurs; lower probability but higher potential.
Debit: $104.81-$128.10
Max loss: $128.10
BE: $1691.90
Mgmt: Set stop-loss; monitor IV crush; take profits on sharp move. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Aggressive traders seeking convex downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot breaks and holds below $1775 (max pain) with bearish momentum → Enter bear put spread (buy $1820/$1760 put spread) for defined-risk downside
IFIf spot breaks below $1700 (gamma flip) accelerating downside → Buy $1820 long put for convex downside exposure
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot rallies above $1900 → Exit all bearish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias. Key support: $1775 (max pain), $1700 (gamma flip). Resistance: $1900. Favor bear put spread for defined risk; long put if downside accelerates. Invalidation above $1900.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.