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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1778.46EOD only

Max Pain

$1785.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$90.65

5.1% from close

Price Gap

+6.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral bias: negative gamma and max pain proximity balance dealer long delta (+4.5M). Range-bound $1700-$1780; downside risk if $1700 breaks.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5: -1 GEX/flow, +1 spot vs MP, +0.5 VIX, +0.5 dealer delta → 6.0 moderate. No override needed.

Supports: Spot near max pain $1780, positive dealer delta +4.5M shares, EM guardrails define range.
Conflicts: Negative GEX -$1.8M, QQQ -0.42%, mixed flow, gamma flip $1700 below spot.

📉Gamma flip $1700: put OI 2,903 (3.6% below spot) – dealers sell below

🎯Max pain $1780: pinning target but QQQ headwind limits upside

🔻VIX 19: IV at 70th percentile, rich vs VIX – sell premium with rank awareness

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV relative to VIX 19; IV at 70th percentile of 52-wk range. Elevated vol confirms short gamma and event risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending negative – GEX -$1.8M; gamma flip at $1700 (put OI concentration) amplifies moves below.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium – both puts and calls traded; net premium neutral but high put OI at $1700.

Spot vs Max Pain

At max pain – spot near $1780 (June 26 pin), with additional pins at $1750 (July 2, 10).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term weekly expirations (June 26, July 2) and concentrated strikes drive range-bound, pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1683.17$1842.37

Bounded by gamma flip $1700 and max pain $1780; EM guardrails $1683-$1842.

Next 1 week

$1634.32$1891.22

Downside risk if $1700 breaks; support $1634 (1w low) and dealer selling amplifies.

Next 2 weeks

$1591.87$1933.67

Support $1591 (2w low); negative gamma can accelerate declines if triggered.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1780 (2026-06-26); $1750 (2026-07-02); $1750 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $1683.17/$1842.37; 1w $1634.32/$1891.22

Support: $1700.00 · $1600.00 · $1591.87

Resistance: $1780.00 · $1900.00 · $1933.67

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,903 (3.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: 1700 (gamma flip), 1600, 1591.87 (2w low). Resistance: 1780 (max pain), 1900, 1933.67 (2w high). EM 2d: 1683/1842; 1w: 1634/1891.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.8M

DEX: +4.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,903 (3.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$1.8M (short gamma); DEX +4.5M shares (long delta); gamma flip ~$1700 (put OI 2,903; 3.6% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV at 70th percentile of 52-wk range, rich vs VIX 19. Elevated vol reflects short gamma and event risk; attractive for short vol but rank suggests caution.

Term structure: Contango with near-term kinks at weekly expiries (June 26, July 2); far-dated vol lower.

Skew: Put skew elevated – downside protection expensive. Opportunity: sell put spreads below $1700 gamma flip or call spreads above $1780.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$87.9M; put/call vol ratio 1.4 shows put volume dominance but call premium outweighs, indicating mixed sentiment.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 57.5 put 1660 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 2.4; 338 vol vs 141 OI suggests new put buying. Bearish bias, longer-term. 62.5 call 1900 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.3; 380 vol vs 165 OI, expiring in 2 days, aggressive call buying. Bullish bias, speculative.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $1700 triggers dealer selling and sharp drop.

!Short squeeze above $1780 max pain if spot breaks resistance.

!Macro shock like tariff news increases vol and breaks range.

!Gamma amplification cuts both ways – expect large swings.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put Why now: Neutral with bearish shift; dealer selling if $1700 breaks; long put captures convexity.	Time decay and vol contraction if spot stays range-bound.
Short strangle	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-17 $1740.00 put + sell $1800.00 call Why now: Wide wings at 1740/1810 capture range expectation; high vol premium.	Unlimited loss if breakout beyond wings.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1840.00 call spread Why now: Max pain near 1780; call premium dominate; defined-risk bearish expression.	Small premium; requires bearish move to profit.

Top Plays

Long Put for Downside Break

Buy 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put

Buy July $1760 put to capture sharp drop below support, leveraging high put volume and negative gamma.

Why this play: Best play for bearish thesis; convexity if $1700 breaks, aligns with dealer selling trigger.

Debit: $96.66-$118.14

Max loss: $118.14

BE: $1641.86

Mgmt: Exit if spot holds $1700 or rises above $1780 invalidation.

Traders expecting a breakdown below $1700 before earnings.

Call Credit Spread on Call Dominance

Sell 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1840.00 call spread

Sell $1800/$1840 call spread to profit from range-bound behavior and limited upside.

Why this play: Defined-risk bearish play; premium from call dominance, max pain caps upside.

Credit: $13.82-$16.89

Max loss: $23.11

BE: $1816.89

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $1780 or near expiry.

Traders with moderate bearish view wanting defined risk.

Short Strangle for Range Capture

Sell 2026-07-17 $1740.00 put + sell $1800.00 call

Sell $1740 put and $1800 call to capture high vol premium with wide wings.

Why this play: Neutral play to collect premium from range expectation, but unlimited risk makes it lower ranked.

Credit: $175.10-$214.01

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 1525.99 / 2014.01

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; adjust or close if approaching invalidation levels.

Traders confident in range-bound price action with high volatility.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFASML spot breaks below $1700 → Buy July $1760 put (long put)

IFASML spot rises above $1780 → Sell $1800/$1840 call spread (call credit spread)

IFASML stays between $1700 and $1780 → Sell $1740 put + $1800 call (short strangle)

Exit Triggers

EXITLong put invalidated: spot holds above $1700 or rises above $1780 → Close long put

EXITCall credit spread invalidated: spot breaks above $1780 → Close call credit spread

EXITShort strangle invalidated: spot breaks outside $1700-$1780 → Close short strangle

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias; range-bound $1700-$1780. Downside if $1700 breaks, upside if $1780 breaks. Top plays: long put for breakdown, call credit spread for resistance, short strangle for range. Manage at invalidation levels.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.