thetaOwl
HomeOptionsASMLReports

ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1550.13EOD only
Max Pain
$1482.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$59.25
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-67.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/15 (inferred from term structure kink). IV elevated (68% for 4/17), crush play viable. Key risk: GEX negative, spot below max pain, potential for trending moves.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/17 (68% vs 57% pre) confirms earnings timing.
📅Earnings inferred 4/15 from IV kink at 4/17
⚠️Negative GEX (-$1.8M) suggests trending regime, not pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58.3%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$1.8M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$36.2M, P/C 1.17)
Spot vs MP
Below (spot $1304 vs max pain $1340)
Gamma flip: ~$1150.00 — Below $1150, dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-15 (9 days)inferred from term structure kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (11d): ±$122.75 (9.4%) [$1181.26 - $1426.76]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 (68% vs 57% pre-earnings), elevated IV

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts, back to ~55%

Skew: Puts richer than calls (P/C OI 1.36)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters positive EPS surprise

Key Levels

1$1400 call OI wall
2$1355 GEX pin magnet
3$1150 put OI cluster
4EM: $1180-$1425

Flow Highlights

Heavy $1400C 4/10 buying (444 vol vs 288 OI, IV 53.8%)

Earnings upside bet near call OI wall

Unusual $790P 4/24 activity (527 vol vs 250 OI, IV 114.1%)

Tail risk hedge far OTM

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell $1180P x $1420C 4/17
Credit: $25.00-$35.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.00
BE: 1150/1450
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings
Elevated IV (68%) supports selling premium, historical beat rate suggests contained moves
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($1180-$1425)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$50
Long put spread
Buy $1300P / Sell $1200P 4/17
Max loss: $100.00
Max gain: $900.00
BE: $1290.00
Trigger: Enter if spot breaks below $1300 pre-earnings
Spot below max pain ($1340), negative GEX amplifies downside, put OI cluster at $1150 provides target
Outperforms: Stock gaps down below $1200
Underperforms: Stock stays above $1300
Iron condor
Sell $1200/$1150P x $1400/$1450C 4/17
Credit: $12.00-$18.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: $15.00
BE: 1188/1462
Trigger: Enter 3 days before earnings
Defined risk, captures IV crush, aligns with key OI levels
Outperforms: Stock stays within $1200-$1400
Underperforms: Gap exceeds wings by >$50

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 9.4% EM but negative GEX could amplify moves
!IV crush may disappoint if elevated VIX persists
!Liquidity: sufficient OI (136K) but lower volume (25K) vs mega-caps

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/17
?Spot vs max pain ($1340) pre-earnings
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $790P)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.