ThetaOwl

ASML Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/15 (inferred from term structure kink). IV elevated (68% for 4/17), crush play viable. Key risk: GEX negative, spot below max pain, potential for trending moves.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/17 (68% vs 57% pre) confirms earnings timing.
📅Earnings inferred 4/15 from IV kink at 4/17
⚠️Negative GEX (-$1.8M) suggests trending regime, not pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58.3%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$1.8M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$36.2M, P/C 1.17)
Spot vs MP
Below (spot $1304 vs max pain $1340)
Gamma flip: ~$1150.00 — Below $1150, dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-15 (9 days)inferred from term structure kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (11d): ±$122.75 (9.4%) [$1181.26 - $1426.76]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 (68% vs 57% pre-earnings), elevated IV

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts, back to ~55%

Skew: Puts richer than calls (P/C OI 1.36)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters positive EPS surprise

Key Levels

1$1400 call OI wall
2$1355 GEX pin magnet
3$1150 put OI cluster
4EM: $1180-$1425

Flow Highlights

Heavy $1400C 4/10 buying (444 vol vs 288 OI, IV 53.8%)

Earnings upside bet near call OI wall

Unusual $790P 4/24 activity (527 vol vs 250 OI, IV 114.1%)

Tail risk hedge far OTM

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell $1180P x $1420C 4/17
Credit: $25.00-$35.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.00
BE: 1150/1450
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings
Elevated IV (68%) supports selling premium, historical beat rate suggests contained moves
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($1180-$1425)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$50
Long put spread
Buy $1300P / Sell $1200P 4/17
Max loss: $100.00
Max gain: $900.00
BE: $1290.00
Trigger: Enter if spot breaks below $1300 pre-earnings
Spot below max pain ($1340), negative GEX amplifies downside, put OI cluster at $1150 provides target
Outperforms: Stock gaps down below $1200
Underperforms: Stock stays above $1300
Iron condor
Sell $1200/$1150P x $1400/$1450C 4/17
Credit: $12.00-$18.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: $15.00
BE: 1188/1462
Trigger: Enter 3 days before earnings
Defined risk, captures IV crush, aligns with key OI levels
Outperforms: Stock stays within $1200-$1400
Underperforms: Gap exceeds wings by >$50

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 9.4% EM but negative GEX could amplify moves
!IV crush may disappoint if elevated VIX persists
!Liquidity: sufficient OI (136K) but lower volume (25K) vs mega-caps

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/17
?Spot vs max pain ($1340) pre-earnings
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $790P)

Read the Earnings analysis for ASML for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.