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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1550.13EOD only

Max Pain

$1482.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$59.25

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-67.63

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.33

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside risk to $1150. Confidence: 4/10 (base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict). Supporting signals: negative GEX -$1.8M (trending), max pain ladder falling from $1340 to $1280, net premium +$36.2M but P/C ratios >1. Conflicts: high IV 58.3% vs VIX unknown, spot below max pain.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (negative GEX vs net premium bullish); moderate OI reduces precision.

Supports: Negative GEX -$1.8M (trending), falling max pain ladder, P/C ratios >1
Conflicts: High IV 58.3%, net premium +$36.2M bullish

📊GEX -$1.8M trending; gamma flip ~$1150

📉Max pain falling from $1340 to $1280 over expirations

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 58.3% — high; term structure humped (68% 4/17 > 57% 4/10).

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$1.8M trending; gamma flip ~$1150 (put OI concentration).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium +$36.2M bullish but P/C vol 1.17, OI 1.36 — mixed.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $1304.01 below max pain $1340 (4/10) — bearish gravity.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends down across expirations ($1340 → $1280), GEX sign stable negative, flow regime consistent; prefer 30-45 DTE.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$1164.56$1443.46

Max pain $1340 pin magnet; <$1240 invalidates (EM lower bound).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1340 (2026-04-10); $1350 (2026-04-17); $1370 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $1240.00 · $1200.00 · $1150.00

Resistance: $1340.00 · $1350.00 · $1400.00

Gamma flip: ~$1150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,068 (11.8% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $1400-$1500 caps upside; put floor $700-$1220 distant but heavy.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.8M

DEX: +3.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,068 (11.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Negative GEX -$1.8M; put gamma concentrated at $1150 (2,068 OI). If spot moves -2% to $1278, dealer selling accelerates; +2% to $1330, buying pressure increases.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 58.3% — high; VIX unknown, likely rich.

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 68% > 4/10 57% > 4/24 60.4%; event-pricing kink at 4/17 earnings.

Skew: 4/17 vs 4/10 ~11 vol-pt differential (sell 68%, buy 57%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$36.2M bullish; P/C vol 1.17, OI 1.36 — mixed.

Directional prints: call 1350 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 176 vs OI 110 (1.6x) — likely sold (high IV 54.5%). put 1200 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 231 vs OI 145 (1.6x) — likely bought (IV 65.1%).

Unusual: 114.1 put 790 OTM 2026-04-24 — Vol 527 vs OI 250 (2.1x) — likely hedging tail risk.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~$1150 breaks support, accelerating sell-off

!Earnings 4/15 (EPS est $6.64) — IV crush post-event

!High IV 58.3% — premium selling risk if vol drops

!Negative GEX -$1.8M — trending moves exacerbate losses

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Avoid — negative GEX, below max pain.	Downside to $1150.
Short stock	Moderate	Sell shares at $1304.01, target $1240.	Pin to $1340 max pain.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $1340 call 4/17.	Assignment above $1340.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $1240/$1200 put spread 4/17.	Break below $1200.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV, negative GEX.	IV crush, pin resistance.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Strong	Buy $1300/$1240 put spread 4/17.	Pin to max pain.
Iron condor	Moderate	$1240/$1200P x $1340/$1400C 4/17.	High IV >28, GEX negative.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 68% IV, buy 4/10 57% IV — regular calendar at $1340.	Earnings vol crush.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $1000 call 2027-01-15, sell $1340 call 4/17.	Time decay on short leg.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $1300/$1240 put spread 4/17.

Defined-risk bearish play aligning with negative GEX and falling max pain.

Debit: $40.00-$45.00

Max loss: $40.00

BE: $1295.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit; cut if spot >$1340.

Traders expecting downside to $1240 EM bound.

Covered Call

Own shares, sell $1340 call 4/17.

Income generation with pin to max pain $1340; high IV boosts premium.

Credit: $20.00-$25.00

Max loss: unlimited

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $1340; close at 50% profit.

Shareholders seeking yield in a range-bound downtrend.

Regular Calendar Spread

Sell $1340 call 4/17 (68% IV), buy $1340 call 4/10 (57% IV).

Capitalizes on 11 vol-pt differential; earnings vol crush benefits short leg.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: unlimited

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close after earnings 4/15; cut if IV flattens.

Vol traders exploiting humped term structure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $1240, holds 30 min → Buy $1300/$1240 put spread 4/17.

IFIV term structure steepens (4/17 > 70%) → Sell $1340 call 4/17, buy $1340 call 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot >$1340 and VIX spikes >30 → Exit all short premium positions.

EXITPost-earnings IV crush (IV drops 10+ points) → Take profit on calendar spread.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bearish drift toward $1150 gamma flip, pinned by max pain ladder. Invalidation: spot >$1340. Regime favors directional bearish plays and premium selling into high IV. Top plays: bear put spread for defined risk, covered call for shareholders, calendar spread for vol edge.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.