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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1550.13EOD only
Max Pain
$1482.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$59.25
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-67.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.33
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
ASML Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish with a near-term pin magnet to $1340-$1350, but structural pressure lower intensifies. Confidence: 4/10 — negative GEX deepens, spot remains below MP, and high IV offers premium-selling edge against a fragile tape.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0 — no overriding factors.
Supports: Spot below near-term max pain ($1340-$1350) creates pinning gravity; high IV (58.3%) favors premium sellers.
Conflicts: Negative GEX deepens to -$4.4M (amplifies trends); P/C ratios >1.4 show heavy put activity; falling MP trend long-term.
⚠️GEX more negative & spot below MP — conflict between near-term pin and accelerating trend risk.
💰IV ~58% — expensive options favor premium sellers, especially on bounces.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV 58.3% — high vol regime; selling premium has edge on range-bound moves, but negative GEX warns of breakouts.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$4.4M — negative gamma deepens, suggesting dealers amplify moves, favoring trends over pinning.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed — net premium +$28.2M is bullish, but P/C vol 1.54 & OI 1.40 are bearish, indicating institutional hedging dominates.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $1317.23 below near-term MP ($1340-$1350) — creates upward pinning magnet for this week, but resistance is strong.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and falling max pain trend ($1350 → $1280 over 17 expirations) persist across expirations, suggesting a bearish drift over 2-4 weeks, despite near-term pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$1310.05$1324.40
Max pain pin to $1340 (4/2) dominates; break below $1310 (2d EM low) invalidates.
Next 1 week
$1241.18$1393.28
Pin releases post-4/2; negative GEX and falling MP trend take over, targeting $1245 support.
Next 2 weeks
$1183.83$1450.63
Structural put OI floor at $1245 is key; break targets $1220. Earnings (4/15) adds volatility.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1350 (2026-03-27); $1340 (2026-04-02); $1350 (2026-04-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $1310.05/$1324.40; 1w $1241.18/$1393.28
Support: $1245.00 · $1075.00 · $1250.00
Resistance: $2180.00 · $1400.00 · $2100.00
Gamma flip: ~$1245.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,037
Structural: Massive call OI wall $1400-$2180 caps rallies; deep put floor $600-$1250 provides distant but heavy support. The $1245 put (OI=2,037) is the near-term gamma flip and critical level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-4.4M

DEX: +4.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1245 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,037)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$1245. Below: dealers are long gamma (hedge by selling), amplifying downtrends. Above: dealers are short gamma (hedge by buying), but GEX negative overall suggests weak pinning force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 58.3% — extremely high, implying expensive options. Premium sellers have edge if spot stays range-bound.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 0d IV 20.3% < 8d IV 48.5% < 15d IV 60.7%. Huge kink at 4/17 (60.7%) pricing April earnings (4/15).

Skew: Far OTM puts ($790 Apr24) trade at IV 103% — extreme fear tail. Selling these via put spreads against the $1245 floor is a potential vol arb.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$28.2M bullish, but P/C vol 1.54 & OI 1.40 show heavy put activity — likely hedging dominates speculative flow.

Directional prints: $1310P 4/2 vol 326 vs OI 133 (2.5x) at low IV 12.7% — likely sold puts for pin premium. $1390C 4/10 vol 202 vs OI 112 (1.8x) at IV 48.2% — could be bought calls for a pin pop or sold calls against the $1400 wall. Flow is mixed, with the low-IV put sales more consistent with the pinning regime.

Unusual: $570P 8/21 vol 360 at IV 69.8% — deep OTM long-dated protection purchase, signaling structural bearish hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $1245 — break below accelerates selling via dealer hedging.
!April 15 earnings (IV 60.7% for 4/17) — imminent vol crush or gap risk.
!High IV (58.3%) — long premium strategies face rapid decay if spot stalls.
!Negative GEX deepens to -$4.4M — reduces pinning efficacy, increases trend risk.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Not recommended standalone. Use with hedge (e.g., buy $1240 put).
Negative GEX and falling MP trend.
Short stockModerate
Entry near $1340 (near-term MP), stop above $1400.
Near-term pin to $1340-$1350.
Covered callModerate-Strong
Own stock, sell $1400C 4/17 or 5/15.
Stock decline outweighs premium.
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell $1245/$1235 put spread 4/10 (below gamma flip).
Break below $1245 triggers max loss.
Long callsWeak
Avoid — high IV, negative GEX, pin risk.
Vol crush and pin fade.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate
Buy $1300/$1280 put spread 4/17.
Near-term pin to $1340 erodes premium.
Iron condorModerate
$1245/$1235P x $1400/$1410C 4/10 (outside EM bounds).
Negative GEX reduces pinning; IV high but VIX context unknown.
Calendar/diagonalModerate-Strong
Reverse calendar: Sell $1340C 4/2 (IV 20.3%), buy $1340C 4/17 (IV 60.7%) — bet on pin then vol crush.
Spot moves away from strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy $1000C Jan 2027 (IV 49.0%), sell $1400C 4/17 against it.
Capital intensive; short leg pin risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread (Multi-week)
Buy $1300 / Sell $1280 Put Spread, Exp 4/17
Expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis with defined risk. Uses the 4/17 expiry to capture post-pin move and pre-earnings drift toward $1280 max pain, while benefiting from high IV on the long put.
Debit: $7.50-$9.50
Max loss: $20.00
BE: $1292.50
Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($12.5). Exit if spot closes above $1350 (above near-term MP cluster). Roll down if spot breaks below $1245.
Traders with bearish conviction wanting to limit risk in a high IV environment.
#2
Reverse Call Calendar (Near-term Pin Play)
Sell $1340 Call 4/2, Buy $1340 Call 4/17
Capitalizes on the near-term pin to $1340 and the extreme IV inversion (20.3% vs 60.7%). Profits if spot pins near $1340 through 4/2, then the short leg decays to zero while long leg retains earnings vol.
Credit: $2.50-$4.00
Max loss: N/A
BE: Dynamic; best at $1340 at 4/2 expiry.
Mgmt: Close spread after 4/2 expiry for profit. If spot rallies above $1350, consider rolling short call up. If spot drops sharply, may still profit from long call vol.
Neutral-to-bearish traders betting on the pin holding this week followed by a drop.
#3
Defined-Risk Put Spread Sale (30+ DTE)
Sell $1245 / Buy $1235 Put Spread, Exp 5/15
Sells elevated IV (53.6% for 5/15) while defining risk below the key gamma flip. The extra time improves risk/reward by widening the breakeven and allowing for pin oscillations, aligning with the view that the $1245 structural floor holds for weeks.
Credit: $1.50-$2.50
Max loss: $8.50
BE: $1243.50
Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Exit immediately on a daily close below $1245.
Premium sellers seeking defined risk, comfortable defending the $1245 level over a longer horizon.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot rallies to tag $1340 (near 4/2 MP) → Enter bear put spread ($1300/$1280) 4/17.
IFSpot holds between $1325-$1335 for 4+ hours pre-4/2 expiry → Enter reverse call calendar (sell $1340C 4/2, buy $1340C 4/17).
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes above $1350 (above near-term MP cluster) → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, short calls).
EXIT4/2 $1340 call settles ITM (pin fails) → Close reverse calendar for loss; reassess.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Near-term pin to $1340 conflicts with multi-week bearish drift due to deepening negative GEX and falling max pain. Invalidation above $1350. Regime favors selling premium at resistance ($1400) and buying defined-risk puts on bounces. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread (4/17) for directional bearish; 2) Reverse calendar for pin/vol play; 3) Longer-dated put spread sale for premium collection at key support.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
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