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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1550.13EOD only

Max Pain

$1482.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$59.25

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-67.63

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.33

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a near-term pin risk toward $1330-$1350, but structural pressure lower. Confidence: 4/10 — negative GEX suggests trending risk, but high IV and mixed flow create a volatile, uncertain tape.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0 — no overriding factors.

Supports: Spot below max pain ($1330-$1350) creates pinning gravity; high IV (59.2%) offers premium-selling edge.
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$2.4M) suggests trending, not pinning; P/C ratios >1.3 indicate put dominance; falling MP trend long-term.

⚠️GEX negative & spot below MP — conflict between near-term pin and structural trend risk.

💰IV >59% — expensive options favor premium sellers.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.2% — high vol regime; selling premium has edge on range-bound moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$2.4M — negative gamma suggests dealers amplify moves, favoring trends over pinning.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$65M is bullish, but P/C ratios >1.3 are bearish, indicating institutional hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $1320.83 below near-term MP ($1330-$1350) — creates upward pinning magnet for this week.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and falling max pain trend ($1350 → $1300) persist across expirations, suggesting a bearish drift over 2-4 weeks, despite near-term pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1257.78$1383.88

Max pain pin dominates; break below $1257.78 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$1220.38$1421.28

Pin releases post-4/2; negative GEX and falling MP trend take over.

Next 2 weeks

$1165.98$1475.68

Structural put OI floor at $1245-$1250 is key support; break targets $1220.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1350 (2026-03-27); $1330 (2026-04-02); $1330 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $1257.78/$1383.88; 1w $1220.38/$1421.28

Support: $1245.00 · $1075.00 · $1250.00

Resistance: $2180.00 · $1400.00 · $2100.00

Gamma flip: ~$1245.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,017

Structural: Massive call OI wall $1400-$2180 caps rallies; deep put floor $600-$1250 provides distant but heavy support. The $1245 put (OI=2,017) is the near-term gamma flip and critical level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.4M

DEX: +4.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1245 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,017)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$1245. Below: dealers are long gamma (hedge by selling), amplifying downtrends. Above: dealers are short gamma (hedge by buying), but GEX negative overall suggests weak pinning force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.2% — extremely high, implying expensive options. Premium sellers have edge if spot stays range-bound.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 2d IV 59.4% > 10d IV 52.6%. Huge kink at 4/17 (64.8%) pricing April earnings (4/15).

Skew: Far OTM puts ($790 Apr24) trade at IV 106% — extreme fear tail. Selling these via put spreads against the $1245 floor is a potential vol arb.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$65.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.31 & OI 1.41 show heavy put activity — likely hedging.

Directional prints: $1430C 4/2 vol 1,482 vs OI 138 (10.7x) at IV 47.8% — could be bought calls for a pin pop or sold calls against the $1400 wall. $1325P 4/2 vol 350 vs OI 178 (2.0x) at low IV 38.7% — likely sold puts for premium.

Unusual: $790P 4/24 vol 527 at IV 106.3% — extreme tail hedge or vol sale. $910P 8/21 vol 338 — longer-dated downside protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $1245 — break below accelerates selling via dealer hedging.

!April 15 earnings (IV 64.8% for 4/17) — imminent vol crush or gap risk.

!High IV (59%) — long premium strategies face rapid decay if spot stalls.

!Negative GEX — reduces pinning efficacy, increases trend risk.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended standalone. Use with hedge.	Negative GEX and falling MP trend.
Short stock	Moderate	Entry near $1330-$1340, stop above $1400.	Near-term pin to $1350.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $1400C 4/17 or 5/15.	Stock decline outweighs premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $1245/$1235 put spread 4/10 (below gamma flip).	Break below $1245 triggers max loss.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV, negative GEX.	Vol crush and pin fade.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $1300/$1280 put spread 4/17.	Near-term pin to $1330 erodes premium.
Iron condor	Moderate	$1245/$1235P x $1400/$1410C 4/10 (outside EM bounds).	Negative GEX reduces pinning; VIX context unknown but IV high.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse calendar: Sell $1330C 4/2 (IV 59.4%), buy $1330C 4/17 (IV 64.8%) — bet on pin then vol crush.	Spot moves away from strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $1000C Jan 2027 (IV 49.5%), sell $1400C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; short leg pin risk.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Multi-week)

Buy $1300 / Sell $1280 Put Spread, Exp 4/17

Expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis with defined risk. Uses the 4/17 expiry to capture post-pin move and pre-earnings drift toward $1280 max pain, while benefiting from high IV on the long put.

Debit: $7.50-$9.50

Max loss: $7.50

BE: $1292.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($12.5). Exit if spot closes above $1335 (pin holds). Roll down if spot breaks below $1245.

Traders with bearish conviction wanting to limit risk in a high IV environment.

Reverse Call Calendar (Near-term Pin Play)

Sell $1330 Call 4/2, Buy $1330 Call 4/17

Capitalizes on the near-term pin to $1330 and the steep IV inversion (59.4% vs 64.8%). Profits if spot pins near $1330 through 4/2, then the short leg decays rapidly while long leg retains earnings vol.

Credit: $2.50-$4.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: Dynamic; best at $1330 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close spread after 4/2 expiry for profit. If spot rallies above $1350, consider rolling short call up. If spot drops sharply, may still profit from long call vol.

Neutral-to-bearish traders betting on the pin holding this week followed by a drop.

Defined-Risk Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $1245 / Buy $1235 Put Spread, Exp 4/10

Sells elevated IV (52.6% for 4/10) while defining risk below the key gamma flip and put OI support at $1245. Aligns with the view that the structural floor holds in the near term, despite bearish drift.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: $9.20

BE: $1244.20

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Exit immediately on a daily close below $1245.

Premium sellers seeking defined risk, comfortable defending the $1245 level.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $1340 (near 4/2 MP) → Enter bear put spread ($1300/$1280) 4/17.

IFSpot holds between $1325-$1335 for 4+ hours pre-4/2 expiry → Enter reverse call calendar (sell $1330C 4/2, buy $1330C 4/17).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $1350 (above near-term MP cluster) → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, short calls).

EXIT4/2 $1330 call settles ITM (pin fails) → Close reverse calendar for loss; reassess.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Near-term pin to $1330 conflicts with multi-week bearish drift due to negative GEX and falling max pain. Invalidation above $1350. Regime favors selling premium at resistance ($1400) and buying defined-risk puts on bounces. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread (4/17) for directional bearish; 2) Reverse calendar for pin/vol play; 3) Put spread sale for premium collection at key support.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.