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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1892.66EOD only
Max Pain
$1520.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$89.60
4.7% from close
Price Gap
-372.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
98
High premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
ASML Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias. Dealer gamma +$2.9M, VIX 16 support. Spot 16.4% above MP ($1550) risks pullback. Price ranges contain action; support $1700, resistance $1900-$1965.

Confidence:
8 / 10
GEX/flow +2, pinning +1, distance -1, VIX +1 = 8.
Supports: GEX +$2.9M, VIX 16, spt $1700, pinning near $1660-$1680 expiries.
Conflicts: Spot 16.4% above MP, res $1900-$1965, mixed flow, high IV.
📊GEX +$2.9M positive, pinning support.
⚠️Spot 16.4% above MP; pullback risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs hist, event premium.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$2.9M, flip $1400 (22.4% below). Pinning near $1660-$1680.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; balanced P/C.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot 16.4% above MP, spt $1700, res $1900.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiries Jun18-Jun26-Jul2 create event-specific window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$1737.09$1870.69
Range $1737-$1870; spt $1700.
Next 1 week
$1670.94$1936.84
Range $1670-$1936; key $1900.
Next 2 weeks
$1642.19$1965.59
Range $1642-$1965; support $1642.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1550 (2026-06-18); $1660 (2026-06-26); $1680 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $1737.09/$1870.69; 1w $1670.94/$1936.84
Support: $1700.00 · $1642.19
Resistance: $1900.00 · $1965.59
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,627 (22.4% below spot)
Structural: Spt $1700/$1642; Res $1900/$1965; Flip $1400; MP $1550/$1660/$1680.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.9M

DEX: +5.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,627 (22.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$2.9M positive; flip $1400; containment $1700-$1900.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX 16; event premium.

Term structure: Kinked weekly expiries; backwardation likely.

Skew: Put skew cheap; prefer call spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive net premium ($97.6M) despite put volume dominance (P/C vol 1.33), indicating large-sized call buying.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 78.9 call 2270 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.9, small size (285 vs 100). High IV. Likely bought as OTM speculative call, given low premium ($0.05). 56.4 call 1950 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.7, moderate size (286 vs 105). Premium $2.5. Likely bought as ITM or ATM call, consistent with bullish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot-MP distance pullback.
!Gamma flip crash.
!IV collapse.
!Resistance $1900-$1965.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1840.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer gamma support and positive premium flow suggest upside; limited risk via spread.
Capped upside; IV contraction may reduce credit but spread limits loss. Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $1850.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $1840.00.

Top Plays

#1
ASML Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1840.00 call spread
Leveraged upside via call spread with defined risk.
Why this play: Only eligible candidate; positive premium flow and dealer gamma support bullish bias.
Debit: $16.16-$19.75
Max loss: $19.75
BE: $1819.75
Mgmt: Invalidation at $1700; target max gain or IV expansion.
Traders expecting moderate upside before earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFASML holds above $1700 support → Enter the bull call spread: buy 2026-07-17 $1800/$1840 call spread for net debit 16.16-19.75
Exit Triggers
EXITASML breaks below $1700 invalidation level → Exit the bull call spread position

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma support. Key support $1700, resistance $1900-$1965. Only eligible play is the bull call spread. Risk: pullback from spot-MP distance, gamma flip at $1400, IV collapse. Invalidation at $1700.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.