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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.68EOD only

Max Pain

$1700.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$61.10

3.2% from close

Price Gap

-229.68

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.36

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong dealer gamma pinning at $1700 and positive DEX of 6.2M shares, despite high vol and spot 20.6% above MP. QQQ strength provides tailwind.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5: +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 positive gamma pinning, -1 spot far from MP, +1 VIX 16.

Supports: Dealer gamma +$10.8M, DEX +6.2M shares, QQQ up 2.51%.
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain ($1600-1700), mixed flow, high vol premium drag.

🚀Dealer Gamma Pinning: Strong GEX ($10.8M) and DEX (6.2M) pin stock toward $1700.

⚠️Spot 20.6% Above MP: May attract selling but dealer hedging provides support.

📊QQQ Leadership: 2.51% gain aligns with ASML tech sensitivity, bullish catalyst.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol relative to typical range; IV elevated vs VIX 16.4 implying event risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX ($10.8M) with strong pinning at $1700; gamma flip at $1400 (27.4% below spot).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put OI concentration at $1400 creates skew but dealers net long gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP ($1600-1700) by ~20.6%, wide zone between support $1848 and gamma flip.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiry pins (Jun 18, 26, Jul 2) indicate sustained dealer hedging into July, supporting multi-week outlook.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$1868.58$1990.78

Dealer gamma supports upside to $1990; resistance at $1990.

Next 2 weeks

$1848.68$2010.68

Broader range $1848-$2010; breakout above $1990 targets $2010.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1600 (2026-06-18); $1700 (2026-06-26); $1700 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $1868.58/$1990.78

Support: $1848.68

Resistance: $2010.68

Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (27.4% below spot)

Structural: Max-pain pin $1700 (Jun 18, 26, Jul 2). EM guardrails: 1w $1868.58-$1990.78. Support $1848.68, resistance $2010.68. Gamma flip $1400 (put OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+10.8M

DEX: +6.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (27.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma +$10.8M, DEX +6.2M shares, strongly pinning at $1700. Gamma flip ~$1400 (27.4% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16.4, implying event risk; rich premium but pinning gamma supports longs.

Term structure: Likely contangoed with event skew; near-dated IV high (Jun 18 expiry), flattening into July.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to put OI at $1400; call spreads favored if bullish thesis holds given dealer gamma.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $188M with put/call volume ratio 1.48, indicating mixed flows but dominant put volume.

Directional prints: 29.9 put 1900 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.1x, $0.05 premium. Likely bought as cheap downside hedge or speculation; bearish. 21.2 call 1950 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.9x, $1.77 premium. Likely bought as bullish upside bet.

Unusual: 29.9 put 1900 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.1x, $0.05 premium. Unusual high volume vs OI; likely bought. 143.4 put 1200 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.5x, IV 143%, $0.05. Highly speculative deep OTM put; likely bought for tail risk. 14.2 call 1940 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.4x, IV 14%, $0.80. Low IV, bought as near-term bullish call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $1400 if support breaks.

!Volatility crush post-event reduces premium.

!Bearish flow reversal.

!Negative tech sector sentiment.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1920.00/$2140.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma pinning, QQQ tailwind, spot above MP. Spread reduces cost while capping risk.	Earnings gap down or vol crush can limit profit; max loss if spot below lower strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $1720.00/$1580.00 put spread Why now: Put vol elevated, dealer gamma at $1700 provides floor. Spread limits tail risk.	Sharp sell-off below short strike breaches support; vol expansion increases loss.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $1960.00 call Why now: Strong bullish flow, positive DEX, QQQ tailwind. IV may expand into earnings; unlimited upside.	Time decay if spot stays flat; earnings disappoint could crush premium.
Call diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-02 $2060.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $2040.00 call Why now: High IV in front month, term structure favors calendar. Profit from vol crush on short leg.	If spot moves sharply before short expiration, loss on short call may exceed gain on long. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1920.00/$2140.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1920/$2140 call spread to capture upside with capped loss.

Why this play: Best risk/reward: limited cost, defined risk, positive gamma pinning and QQQ tailwind support upside.

Debit: $68.62-$83.88

Max loss: $83.88

BE: $2003.88

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or hold to expiry; stop if spot breaks $1848.68.

Traders seeking balanced directional exposure with controlled risk.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $1960.00 call

Buy 2026-07-17 $1960 call to express strong bullish view.

Why this play: Highest upside potential: bullish thesis, IV may expand into earnings, unlimited profit.

Debit: $105.70-$129.19

Max loss: $129.19

BE: $2089.19

Mgmt: Consider taking profits pre-earnings; set stop loss at $1848.68.

Aggressive traders willing to risk higher premium for uncapped gains.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $1720.00/$1580.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $1720/$1580 put spread to profit from bullish/neutral bias.

Why this play: Collects elevated put premium; dealer gamma at $1700 provides floor.

Credit: $23.31-$28.49

Max loss: $111.51

BE: $1691.51

Mgmt: Manage early to capture premium decay; widen stops below $1700.

Conservative traders seeking income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF ASML holds above $1848.68 support after a bounce → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $1920/$2140 call spread (Bull Call Spread)

IFIF ASML pulls back to $1848.68 without breaking → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $1720/$1580 put spread (Put Credit Spread)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF ASML breaks below $1848.68 → THEN close all bullish positions (call spread, long call, put spread)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at $1848.68 and resistance at $2010.68. Preferred entry via Bull Call Spread on bounce; Put Credit Spread as alternative. Exit if support breaks. Manage around earnings on Jul 15.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.