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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1863.55EOD only

Max Pain

$1500.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$103.60

5.6% from close

Price Gap

-363.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by dealer gamma pinning and positive GEX/flow alignment. Spot 7.7% above max pain and high IV warrant caution. Confidence 8.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX +1 pinning -1 spot distant +1 VIX 18

Supports: GEX +$8.9M, DEX +5.8M, VIX 18
Conflicts: Spot >MP 7.7%, IV high, mixed flow

📌Gamma pinning $1730 (6/12) and $1776 (1w support)

⚠️Spot far from flip $1650 (11.5% below) — tail risk

📊IV rich vs VIX 17.68; premium high

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs VIX, high vol regime

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$8.9M, pinning at $1730, flip $1650

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, but GEX/flow aligns bullish

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 7.7% above MP $1730, upward bias

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma pinning across expiries suggests structural positioning

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$1759.95$1967.15

Support at $1760 (EM guardrail low), resistance $1967

Next 2 weeks

$1776.50$1950.60

Range $1760-$1951; gamma support at $1776

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1730 (2026-06-12); $1500 (2026-06-18); $1600 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 1w $1759.95/$1967.15

Support: $1776.50 · $1730.00 · $1700.00

Resistance: $1950.60

Gamma flip: ~$1650.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,098 (11.5% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $1730 (6/12), $1500 (6/18), $1600 (6/26). Guardrails 1w $1760-$1967. Support $1760, $1730, $1700.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+8.9M

DEX: +5.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1650 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,098 (11.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$8.9M, DEX +5.8M. Flip $1650

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.68, avoid long vol

Term structure: Contango, near-term elevated

Skew: Sell strangles/ call spreads on high IV

Flow Analysis

Net premium: $164M positive net premium, put/call vol ratio 1.17 (slight put bias), OI ratio 1.41; suggests net call buying or put selling.

Directional prints: 18.4 call 1900 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 1387 vs OI 477 (2.9x), last $0.11; bought speculative or sold as hedge; preferred read: bought bullish. 30.8 put 1880 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 776 vs OI 133 (5.8x), last $14.2; bought as hedge/bearish or sold at premium; preferred read: bought bearish.

Unusual: 30.8 put 1880 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 5.8x, highest; aggressive put buying or closing; bearish signal. 37.6 put 1810 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.6x; deep OTM put buying for tail risk or hedging. 35.4 call 1910 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.2x; OTM call buying for upside speculation or sold for premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Tail risk if $1650 breaks

!IV contraction hurts longs

!Macro event disrupts pinning

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00/$1960.00 call spread Why now: GEX positive, flow bullish, IV elevated	IV crush, theta decay if flat
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $1900.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1900.00 call Why now: High near-term IV, earnings vol crush expected	Sharp move ITM hurts short leg Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00/$1960.00 call spread

Buy $1900/$1960 call spread for earnings-run-up.

Why this play: GEX positive, flow bullish, IV high; liquidity pass.

Debit: $21.28-$26.01

Max loss: $26.01

BE: $1926.01

Mgmt: Exit near max gain or if ASML breaks $1776.

Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-10 $1900.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1900.00 call

Sell Jul10 call, buy Aug21 call to profit from IV decline.

Why this play: Exploit high near-term IV and earnings crush; liquidity fail.

Debit: $74.56-$91.14

Max loss: $91.14

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor for IV crush; close if invalidation level hit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Volatility sellers with neutral direction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF ASML holds above $1776.5 support with bullish momentum and IV remains elevated → THEN enter Bull Call Spread: buy 2026-07-17 $1900/$1960 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF ASML breaks below $1776.5 invalidation level → THEN exit Bull Call Spread and any open Call Calendar positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias supported by dealer gamma and flow. Prefer Bull Call Spread for defined risk; avoid Call Calendar due to liquidity concerns. Invalidate at $1776.5; target $1960.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.