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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1863.55EOD only

Max Pain

$1500.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$103.60

5.6% from close

Price Gap

-363.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias near-term driven by strong dealer gamma pinning and positive flow alignment, but high implied vol and spot's 24.5% distance from max pain caution against aggressive chase. Prefer to buy dips to the low end of the 2-day range.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5: +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 16 = net +3 to 8.

Supports: Dealer long gamma ($+5.3M), long delta (+5.5M shares). Price within 2-day EM guardrails. QQQ strength.
Conflicts: Spot far above MP ($1520). High implied vol. Mixed flow (calls vs puts).

🟢GEX +$5.3M/Long delta: dealers pinning price; supports brief runs.

🟡Spot ~24.5% above max pain ($1520): pinning effect reduced, risk of gap.

🔴IV rich vs VIX (16) after 3%+ QQQ rally; vol may mean-revert.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High — implied vol elevated after sharp rally; VIX at 16 but stock IV likely higher due to large move.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — total GEX +$5.3M, gamma flip ~$1400 (26% below spot); near-term pinning at $1803/$1982 EM.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium neutral; put OI concentrated at $1400 (26% below), calls active at higher strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above — spot ~$1892 vs max pain $1520 (Jun18); 24.5% above, reducing pinning effectiveness.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural dealer gamma and flow support multi-week trend, but high vol and spot-MP gap suggest short-term mean reversion risk.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1803.06$1982.26

Support $1803 (EM low), resistance $1982 (EM high). Dips to $1803 offer risk/reward.

Next 2 weeks

$1704.11$2081.21

Wider range $1704–$2081. Upside biased but cap at $2081; vol expansion risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1520 (2026-06-18); $1640 (2026-06-26); $1675 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $1803.06/$1982.26

Support: $1704.11

Resistance: $2081.21

Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,315 (26.0% below spot)

Structural: Support: $1704 (2-week low), $1803 (2-day EM low). Resistance: $1982 (2-day EM high), $2081 (2-week high). Gamma flip ~$1400 (26% below spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.3M

DEX: +5.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,315 (26.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($+5.3M) and long delta (+5.5M shares), providing structural support but gamma flip at $1400 presents tail risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Implied vol likely rich vs VIX 16 — post large move, elevated put/call skew inflates IV relative to index vol.

Term structure: Steep contango: front-month IV elevated, subsequent months lower as event risk decays.

Skew: Put skew elevated (spot above MP, tail hedges). Consider selling out-of-the-money puts on dips to collect premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bearish net premium, put/call volume ratio 1.26, indicating put buying dominance.

Directional prints: 59.7 put 1750 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8x; large put buying for bearish bet or hedge. Preferred read: bearish.

Unusual: 59.7 put 1750 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8x; elevated put activity suggests bearish flow. 60.9 put 1730 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.5x; notable put volume, likely new buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap down due to spot far from MP and high vol.

!Gamma flip at $1400 if spot declines 26%.

!Mean reversion in IV after rally reduces options premiums.

!Event risk (earnings/guidance) not modeled.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $1700.00/$1680.00 put spread Why now: Bullish near-term, high IV favors put selling, defined risk caps gap-down loss.	Stock drops below short strike causing max loss.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $2080.00/$2160.00 call spread Why now: Near-term bullish thesis aligned with upside via limited-risk call spread.	Stock stays below long strike causing full debit loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Call calendar	Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $2080.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $2080.00 call Why now: High near-term IV makes short call premium attractive; long call captures post-earnings drift.	Stock moves far from strike, one leg loses. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $1700.00/$1680.00 put spread

Sell $1700/$1680 put spread to collect premium.

Why this play: Best fit for bullish thesis and high IV, defined risk liquidity pass.

Credit: $4.81-$5.88

Max loss: $14.12

BE: $1694.12

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $1704.

Traders seeking limited-risk bullish exposure.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $2080.00/$2160.00 call spread

Buy $2080/$2160 call spread for upside.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish thesis but liquidity pass false.

Debit: $16.34-$19.96

Max loss: $19.96

BE: $2099.96

Mgmt: Monitor liquidity; exit at target or invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.

Traders comfortable with lower liquidity.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-10 $2080.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $2080.00 call

Sell short-term call, buy later expiration.

Why this play: Captures high near-term IV and post-earnings drift.

Debit: $69.48-$84.92

Max loss: $84.92

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage gamma risk near earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders expecting volatility contraction then expansion.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot declines to $1803 (2-day EM low) → THEN sell $1700/$1680 put spread (asml_put_credit_1)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $1704 (structural support) → THEN close put credit spread and any bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish near-term, prefer dips to $1803. Use put credit spread to collect premium. Invalidation at $1704. Monitor earnings 2026-07-15; high IV favors selling.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.