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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1803.89EOD only

Max Pain

$1550.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$66.80

3.7% from close

Price Gap

-253.89

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.32

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from strong dealer GEX (+$5.6M) and high vol, but spot 19.7% above max pain $1560. Thesis: range-bound with upward drift toward $1918.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 pinning, -1 spot distance from MP, +0.5 VIX 18; total 7.5.

Supports: Dealer gamma positive, high vol suggests large moves, rising support $1780.
Conflicts: Spot far above MP, broad market selloff (SPY -1.25%), elevated IV.

📌GEX +5.6M positive, pinning near $1918.

⚠️Spot 19.7% above max pain $1560, correction risk.

📉QQQ -1.01%, VIX 18.44, broad weakness headwind.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV with VIX 18.44 and market decline; rich for selling premium.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$5.6M, strong positive gamma, flip ~$1400 from put OI. Dealers pin near $1900.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium positive; high call/put ratio not provided but GEX implies net long gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$1868, max pain $1560 (Jun18); 19.7% above suggests selloff risk if gamma weakens.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Next OPEX Jun18 dominates; gamma flips after expiry. Short-term pinning thesis until then.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1817.48$1918.18

Resistance $1918; QQQ weakness may test support.

Next 1 week

$1726.18$2009.48

MP void after OPEX, weak market drops.

Next 2 weeks

$1780.23$1955.43

Post-OPEX range, broad trends dictate.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1560 (2026-06-18); $1680 (2026-06-26); $1680 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $1817.48/$1918.18; 1w $1726.18/$2009.48

Support: $1780.23 · $1700.00

Resistance: $1955.43

Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (25.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $1780 (2w low), $1700; resistance $1955 (2w high). MP pins $1560 (Jun18), $1680 (Jun26/Jul2). Gamma flip ~$1400.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.6M

DEX: +5.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (25.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$5.6M, DEX +5.9M shares. Gamma flip ~$1400 from put OI. Dealers long gamma, pinning near spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ASML IV rich vs VIX 18.44; premium selling attractive if range holds.

Term structure: No term structure data, but front-end elevated due to OPEX; backwardation expected post-expiry.

Skew: Skew likely negative (puts > calls). Opportunity: sell put spreads below $1700 for vol premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$133.8M with put call volume ratio 1.54 and OI ratio 1.31, indicating bearish put dominance.

Directional prints: 50.4 put 1800 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.9x, high IV. Likely aggressive put buying; bearish. 57.3 call 2000 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8x, elevated IV. Likely call buying; bullish.

Unusual: 50.4 put 1800 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.9x, IV 50.4%. Aggressive put buying, bearish. 71.6 call 2100 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.0x, IV 71.6%. OTM call buying, bullish speculation. 57.3 call 2000 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.8x, IV 57.3%. Large call volume, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 19.7% above MP $1560; sharp selloff if dealer gamma fades.

!Broad market weakness (QQQ -1%, VIX 18.44) may accelerate selloff.

!Post-OPEX gamma flip removes pinning, exposing downside to $1726.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00/$1900.00 call spread Why now: Strong dealer GEX and upward drift thesis support a bullish call spread; captures move above 1900 with limited downside.	Stock fails to rally; max loss limited to debit paid.
Put credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $1840.00/$1820.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma support and range-bound thesis favor selling put credit spread; collects premium while limiting tail risk.	Sharp selloff below 1820 leads to max loss of spread width. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1820.00/$1900.00 call spread

Buy the 1820/1900 call spread to profit from expected upward drift toward $1918 while capping risk.

Why this play: Strong dealer GEX and upward drift thesis support a bullish call spread; captures move above 1900 with limited downside.

Debit: $33.52-$40.98

Max loss: $40.98

BE: $1860.98

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $1780 invalidation level; take profit near $1900 or at expiration.

Traders with bullish conviction who want defined risk and reward.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $1840.00/$1820.00 put spread

Sell the 1840/1820 put spread to earn premium from neutral to slightly bullish price action.

Why this play: Range-bound thesis and dealer gamma support favor selling put credit spread to collect premium with limited tail risk.

Credit: $9.00-$11.00

Max loss: $9.00

BE: $1829.00

Mgmt: Close if spot falls below $1780 to avoid assignment; roll if necessary. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Traders expecting limited downside and wanting to generate theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $1780 support and breaks above $1820 → THEN buy the 2026-07-17 $1820/$1900 call spread

IFIF spot remains above $1840 with neutral to bullish bias → THEN sell the 2026-07-24 $1840/$1820 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $1780 → THEN close the bull call spread

EXITIF spot drops below $1780 → THEN buy back the put spread

Tactical Summary

Enter bull call spread on break above $1820, targeting $1900, with invalidation at $1780. Sell put credit spread for theta if above $1840, close below $1780. Near-term bearish lean favors caution; wait for confirmation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.