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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1762.77EOD only

Max Pain

$1780.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$79.60

4.5% from close

Price Gap

+17.23

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.29

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with gamma pinning support near $1775 and positive GEX/flow alignment, but spot above max pain and high vol regime add caution. Thesis targets slow grind toward resistance at $1888-$1900 over next 2 days, with potential expansion to $1950 over 1 week if momentum holds.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Net 8.0.

Supports: Gamma pinning at $1775, positive GEX (+$2.6M), flow alignment, VIX moderate.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, high vol regime, resistance at $1888-$1900.

🟢GEX +$2.6M pinning near $1775; strong dealer support.

🔴High IV (vol: High) suggests risk of sharp moves.

🟡Spot 3.7% above MP; resistance at $1888-$1900 caps near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV regime: implied volatility elevated above typical range, consistent with event-driven uncertainty (weekly expiry). Expect larger daily moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: positive GEX +$2.6M with gamma flip at $1700. Dealers are long gamma, providing support near $1775 and resistance to large directional breaks.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium context unclear; put/call ratio not given. Lack of strong directional flow signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain: current price above $1775 pin, potential gravitational pull down towards expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly options expiry tomorrow (2026-06-26) with pinned max pain at $1775; pinning dynamics drive short-term range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1794.13$1888.23

Gamma pinning supports; resistance at $1888.23 (2d upper EM guardrail).

Next 1 week

$1727.93$1954.43

Potential expansion to $1954.43 (1w upper); support at $1727.93.

Next 2 weeks

$1678.53$2003.83

Wider range $1678.53-$2003.83; gamma flip at $1700 caps downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1775 (2026-06-26); $1750 (2026-07-02); $1700 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $1794.13/$1888.23; 1w $1727.93/$1954.43

Support: $1775.00 · $1700.00 · $1678.53

Resistance: $1900.00 · $2000.00 · $2003.83

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,417 (7.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: $1775 (max pain 6/26), $1700 (gamma flip), $1678.53 (2w lower). Resistance: $1888.23 (2d upper EM), $1900, $2000, $2003.83 (2w upper). EM guardrails: 2d $1794.13/$1888.23, 1w $1727.93/$1954.43.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.6M

DEX: +4.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,417 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$2.6M, gamma flip ~$1700 (based on put OI concentration 3,417 contracts 7.7% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ASML IV is rich vs VIX at 19, implying elevated expected move risk. Pre-expiry premium may compress post-close.

Term structure: Likely upward sloping with kink at weekly expiry; front-month options likely elevated due to event.

Skew: Skew slightly bearish (puts richer); potential to sell elevated weekly strangles into expiry pinning near $1775.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $111.6M; P/C vol ratio 1.65 (more puts), put premium dominates.

Directional prints: 57.6 put 1700 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 677 vs OI 112 (6x); iv 57.6% high. Likely bought puts, bearish bet on downside. 53.8 put 1700 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 186 vs OI 102 (1.8x); iv 53.8%. Aggressive put buying for near-term downside.

Unusual: 57.6 put 1700 OTM 2026-08-21 — Unusually high vol/OI (6x); iv elevated. Likely aggressive put buying for expected drop. 53.8 put 1700 OTM 2026-07-10 — Elevated vol/OI (1.8x); iv high. Put buying suggests bearish sentiment near term.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip at $1700 could trigger sharp selloff.

!IV collapse post-expiry may reduce options value.

!Spot resistance at $1888-$1900 if not broken, leading to reversal.

!Macro or sector shock (VIK 19 could spike) invalidates range assumptions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $1805.00/$1860.00 call spread Why now: Positive GEX and flow, gamma pinning supports grind up; spread limits cost and risk.	Spot fails to reach short strike; max loss if below long strike at expiry. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $1725.00/$1605.00 put spread Why now: Gamma flip near $1700, put wall at $1800; selling out-of-the-money puts with defined risk.	Sharp selloff below short strike; limited loss by long put. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $1820.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1840.00 call Why now: High IV in near term (60+%) vs back-month; positive theta and vega from back-month.	Spot stays flat; back-month can lose value if IV falls. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-17 $1840.00 call Why now: High vol, positive flow; limited capital at risk for outsized gain.	Time decay accelerates if spot stalls; IV collapse post-earnings.

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $1805.00/$1860.00 call spread

Buy $1805/$1860 call spread for defined risk.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish thesis and gamma pinning; limited cost and risk.

Debit: $25.20-$30.80

Max loss: $30.80

BE: $1835.80

Mgmt: Exit near $1888 or hold to expiry. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.

Low-risk bullish bias

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $1725.00/$1605.00 put spread

Sell $1725/$1605 put spread, defined max loss.

Why this play: Sells out-of-the-money puts, profiting from gamma flip support.

Credit: $20.11-$24.59

Max loss: $95.41

BE: $1700.41

Mgmt: Close if price breaks below $1775. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Neutral-to-bullish bias, income

Call diagonal

Sell 2026-07-10 $1820.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1840.00 call

Sell front-month call, buy back-month call.

Why this play: Captures high near-term IV while limiting risk.

Debit: $19.40-$23.71

Max loss: $23.71

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor volatility decay; close if IV drops. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Volatility arbitrage

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $1775 → THEN buy $1805/$1860 call spread (rank 1)

IFIF spot stays above $1775 → THEN sell $1725/$1605 put spread (rank 2)

IFIF IV high and spot near $1820 → THEN sell 7/10 $1820 call / buy 7/17 $1840 call (rank 3)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $1775 → THEN exit all bullish trades

EXITIF spot reaches $1888 and stalls → THEN close bull call spread for profit

EXITIF spot breaks below $1700 (gamma flip) → THEN exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, gamma pinning at $1775. Target $1888-$1900 in 2d, $1950 in 1w. Key support $1775, $1700; resistance $1888, $1900. Top plays: bull call spread, put credit spread, call diagonal. Caution: high IV, break below $1700 triggers sharp selloff.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.