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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.68EOD only

Max Pain

$1700.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$61.10

3.2% from close

Price Gap

-229.68

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.36

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong GEX/flow alignment and positive dealer gamma, offset slightly by spot being 10.2% above max pain. High vol and VIX 17 provide additional tailwind, targeting resistance near $2100.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

Supports: GEX/flow alignment, positive dealer gamma, VIX support, high vol regime
Conflicts: Spot 10.2% above max pain, mixed flow

🔄Gamma pinning strong near $1750, attracts spot upward

⚠️Spot 10.2% above MP may cause reversion risk

📈VIX 17.28 adds macro tailwind for directional plays

📊High vol regime offers premiums for structured strategies

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is high relative to typical levels, reflecting elevated uncertainty. VIX at 17.28 adds macro pressure, supporting directional positioning.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma of $+3.1M GEX with dealer pinning near $1700-1750. Gamma flipping at $1700 (11.9% below spot) creates a strong support magnet.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is mixed overall; net premium context not provided but GEX/flow alignment boosts confidence in the bullish bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is above max pain clusters ($1750, $1700), suggesting upward dealer hedging pressure. Distance of 10.2% from MP is notable.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma pinning and positive dealer positioning suggest a sustained leaning toward upside over the next 1-2 weeks. The combination of high vol and mixed flow supports a multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$1783.20$2075.30

Dealer pinning supports upside; test of $2100 resistance possible within range.

Next 2 weeks

$1740.80$2117.70

Wider range includes gamma flip support; break above $2075 opens $2100+.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1750 (2026-06-26); $1700 (2026-07-02); $1730 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $1783.20/$2075.30

Support: $1750.00 · $1740.80

Resistance: $2100.00 · $2117.70

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,881 (11.9% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $1750 (06/26), $1700 (07/02), $1730 (07/10). EM guardrails: $1783.2/$2075.3 (1w). Support $1750-$1740.8; resistance $2100-$2117.7. Gamma flip at $1700.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.1M

DEX: +4.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,881 (11.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $+3.1M, DEX +4.5M shares. Positive gamma, dealer net long. Gamma flip at ~$1700 (11.9% below spot). Pin action expected near $1750.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is high relative to VIX, implying ASML-specific risk premium. Rich IV may cap upside vol but supports directional positioning if thesis holds.

Term structure: Term structure likely contango with event kinks around weekly OEX. Front-end vols elevated due to pinning activity.

Skew: Skew leans put-side with heavy OI at $1700-1750. A calendar spread (buy front, sell back) could exploit vol premium if spot stays pinned.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net bought $151M, P/C vol 1.89, call premium dominates.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 91 put 1450 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.4x; deep OTM put 91%IV; $0.05 suggests speculative put buying; bearish tail risk. 61.5 call 2100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 1.8x; OTM call 61.5%IV; $8.4 suggests bullish call buying; directional upside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 10.2% above MP may cause reversion if pin fails.

!Mixed flow indicates conflicting dealer signals.

!High vol could trigger stop-losses on sharp moves.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00/$1960.00 call spread Why now: Flow bullish, vol high, buy 1900/1960 call spread for upside with capped risk.	Max loss if spot below 1900; upside capped at 1960.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00 call Why now: Strong bullish flow and vol tailwind; buy 1900 call for convex upside.	Full premium loss if spot declines; time decay accelerates post-earnings.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $1900.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $1900.00 call Why now: High vol persistence; calendar with 1900 strike on 2026-07-17 short and 2026-07-24 long.	If spot moves significantly, both legs move; max loss if spot stays at strike. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00/$1960.00 call spread

Buy 1900/1960 call spread for leveraged upside

Why this play: Capped risk and strong bullish flow with high vol

Debit: $25.38-$31.02

Max loss: $31.02

BE: $1931.02

Mgmt: Exit below 1750 or near expiration

Traders seeking defined risk upside

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00 call

Buy 1900 call for unlimited upside potential

Why this play: Higher convexity but more risk; second best

Debit: $125.64-$153.56

Max loss: $153.56

BE: $2053.56

Mgmt: Take partial profits above 2000, stop at 1750

Aggressive traders comfortable with premium

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-17 $1900.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $1900.00 call

Sell front 1900 call, buy back for vol persistence

Why this play: Volatility carry play but liquidity weak

Debit: $10.58-$12.93

Max loss: $12.93

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Exit if vol drops or spot moves sharply Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Advanced traders managing liquidity risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFASML holds above 1750 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00/$1960.00 call spread near entry range 25.38-31.02

IFASML holds above 1750 support and trader prefers convexity → Buy 2026-07-17 $1900.00 call near entry range 125.64-153.56

Adjustment Triggers

ADJASML reaches 2100 resistance → Take partial profits on long call; close bull call spread for full gain

Exit Triggers

EXITASML breaks below 1750 invalidation level → Exit all bullish trades immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish thesis targeting $2100 resistance. Entry if support at $1750 holds. Adjust profits near $2100. Stop loss at $1750. Earnings on 2026-07-15 add event risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.