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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.25EOD only

Max Pain

$1750.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$104.45

5.4% from close

Price Gap

-179.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.26

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

ASML Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near max pain $1785 with negative dealer gamma; risk of breakdown below $1700 gamma flip. Tech weakness (QQQ -3.29%) adds pressure, but spot at MP may pin short-term.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot at MP; +0.5 VIX 19 => 5.5/10.

Supports: Spot at max pain $1785 (6/26 expiry), elevated VIX 19.5.
Conflicts: Negative dealer gamma, mixed flow, QQQ -3.29% selloff.

🚨Negative gamma $1.2M; dealer hedging may amplify breaks.

🎯Spot at max pain $1785 for 6/26 expiry.

📉QQQ -3.29% signals tech weakness.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: VIX 19.5 and tech selloff drive IV elevation.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending: Negative GEX ($1.2M) favors momentum; gamma flip at $1700.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium unclear; put/call ratios balanced.

Spot vs Max Pain

At: Spot near max pain $1785 (6/26 expiry).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry week with max pain pin and gamma flip suggest near-term event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1687.81$1869.11

Pin at $1785 MP; breakdown risk if $1700 flip breached.

Next 1 week

$1642.76$1914.16

Selloff pressure targets $1700 gamma flip and support.

Next 2 weeks

$1601.11$1955.81

Break of $1700 opens path to $1601 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1785 (2026-06-26); $1740 (2026-07-02); $1745 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $1687.81/$1869.11; 1w $1642.76/$1914.16

Support: $1700.00 · $1601.11

Resistance: $1785.00 · $1900.00 · $1955.81

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,895 (4.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $1785, gamma flip $1700, support $1700/$1601, resistance $1785/$1900.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.2M

DEX: +4.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,895 (4.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: $1.2M negative gamma; dealer hedging amplifies moves; flip ~$1700.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 19.5 due to event risk (expiry).

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation expected post-expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no clear vol-arb opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$88.6M (call-biased) — call premium exceeds put premium despite put/call volume ratio 1.41x and OI ratio 1.31x, indicating larger notional in call trades.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 62.1 call 1850 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 1.7 (252/148) indicates new activity. Likely bought calls betting on upside. Turnover suggests aggressive bullish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip amplification if spot breaches $1700.

!Tech sector selloff persists (QQQ -3.29%).

!Max pain pin fails, triggering dealer hedging reversal.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1700.00/$1620.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk bearish debit spread to profit from post-earnings decline.	Max loss limited; rally above long strike caps profit.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $1660.00 put Why now: Direct bearish exposure with defined downside risk. Post-earnings vol contraction may offset theta.	Time decay if stock doesn't decline before expiration.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $1700.00/$1620.00 put spread

Buy $1700/$1620 put spread, targeting breakdown below $1700 gamma flip.

Why this play: Defined risk, caps loss while profiting from post-earnings decline. Better risk/reward than long put given max pain pin risk.

Debit: $24.98-$30.53

Max loss: $30.53

BE: $1669.47

Mgmt: Exit if spot holds above $1785 invalidation; take profit near max gain if stock drops below $1620.

Traders wanting controlled bearish exposure with limited downside.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $1660.00 put

Buy $1660 put, betting on continued weakness below gamma flip level.

Why this play: Direct bearish bet with upside if tech selloff worsens. Higher payout but more premium at risk.

Debit: $53.91-$65.89

Max loss: $65.89

BE: $1594.11

Mgmt: Monitor vol contraction after earnings; consider closing early if stock retakes $1785.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged bearish play with defined max loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFASML breaks below $1700 → Buy 2026-07-17 $1700/$1620 put spread (max loss $30.53)

IFASML confirms below $1700 with volume → Buy 2026-07-17 $1660 put (max loss $65.89)

Exit Triggers

EXITASML retakes $1785 → Close all bearish positions to limit loss

EXITASML drops below $1620 → Take profit on $1700/$1620 put spread near max gain

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias near max pain $1785, negative dealer gamma. Key levels: support $1700 (gamma flip) and $1601; resistance $1785. Recommended entries on breakdown below $1700: bear put spread or long put. Invalidation if price holds above $1785. Profit target for put spread at $1620. Tech weakness adds downside risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.