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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $386.42EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$22.65
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-6.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short-dated defined-risk put spread (sell 7–14d OTM put, buy lower put for defined risk); alternate: small iron condor for neutral bias. Size small and scale-in/roll—limits tail and pin exposure.
Invalidation: Front-week IV collapse toward mid-40s or spot move decisively below $366 guardrail (~2d EM)
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Elevated IV vs VIX~19; avg ATM IV ~65 with very rich short-dated skew (2d ATM 73, puts >> calls).
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep front-week skew and high short-dated put IV; IV normalizes beyond ~30–60d (~46–50).

⚠️Very rich 2–7d put IV and front-week skew increases short-term premium; monitor rapid IV decay.
📌Dealer GEX +$87M and concentrated OI creates pinning pressure around $382–$390 (max-pain levels).
🔒Overnight/weekend gap risk is material for short-dated sellers—prefer defined-risk spreads, wider strikes, and reduced size.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+87.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,016 (22.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~22.6% below spot; max-pain pins at $382/$388/$390 over next week.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk—spot within ~1.3% of pins; concentrated OI can amplify hedging flows and sudden stops.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $350.00/$320.00 put spread
Sell the $350/$320 put spread to collect near-term put skew premium with limited loss if TSLA falls below short strike.
Credit: $3.11-$3.80
Max loss: $26.20
BE: $346.20
Mgmt: Close or roll if TSLA breaches the short strike ($350) or if position moves >5% adverse; trim on IV collapse or to reduce size; never convert to naked short puts.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $345.00/$310.00 put wing and $465.00/$510.00 call wing
Sell the $345/$310 put wing and $465/$510 call wing to monetize range-bound bias with defined risk.
Credit: $5.93-$7.25
Max loss: $37.75
BE: 337.75 / 472.25
Mgmt: Reduce size, tighten wings or close/roll if front-week IV swings, or on decisive break beyond wings.

Risk Alerts

!Rapid front-week IV collapse or surge
!Overnight/weekend gap risk — mitigate with defined-risk spreads, wider strikes, reduced size and no naked short-dated puts
!Spot break below 2d EM $366.96 invalidates neutral selling bias
!Unexpected corporate news/earnings moving IV structure
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.