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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $415.88EOD only

Max Pain

$435.00

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.88

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+19.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 1, 2026 close

TSLA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

ATM avg IV 63.4% vs VIX 18.17 — IV is highly elevated relative to market

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Short-dated IV shows a sharp spike (2d ATM 47.0%, 9d ATM 58.9%) and elevated 16–64d term (49–55%), giving rich short-term vol to sell.

💰Avg IV 63.4% is rich vs VIX 18.17 — strong edge for sellers of defined premium

⏳2d/9d ATM IV (47.0% / 58.9%) creates premium on weeklies and 1–2 week expirations — good theta capture windows

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+216.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,803 (23.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain near $360 (multiple expirations). Near-term GEX concentration: +$27.5M at $390.00, +$13.3M at $392.50, +$19.3M at $400.00 — dealer gamma skewed to pin ~flat to slightly below current spot toward $390–$400, larger MP at $360 still exerts pull.

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX (+$216.4M) and multiple near-term pin magnets (390/392.5/400) increase pinning probability, which helps defined short premium (put spreads) but raises short-naked tail risk if price gaps below the $360 MP.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $355.00/$330.00 put spread

Sell near-term-to-intermediate put credit spreads targeting short deltas (~0.22) with 25–55 DTE, aiming to collect front-month elevated IV while protecting with a long put 10 points lower.

Credit: $3.92-$4.79

Max loss: $20.21

BE: $350.21

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% profit or if price breaks and closes below $355.73; roll only to widen the spread or roll down if premium justifies and position size allows.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-05-01 $365.00 cash-secured put

Sell 16–30 DTE cash-secured puts around short-delta/strike near $360–$370 to collect premium with plan to buy stock if assigned.

Credit: $6.44-$7.87

Max loss: $357.13

BE: $357.13

Mgmt: Avoid naked through earnings (4/21). Close or roll if stock trades below $355 or if delta rises above ~0.40; size to permit assignment.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-21 (6d) — avoid selling naked premium through this event; prefer defined-risk or exit before the print.

!Gamma flip near $300 — if TSLA were to trend below $300, negative dealer gamma would accelerate downside (big structural tail beyond our support band).

!Max pain cluster at $360 (multiple expirations) — pinning may help puts but creates asymmetric risk if a gap move breaches $355.73 support.

!Unusual activity concentrated in front-week strikes (many trades/vol at 4/15 and 4/17 expirations) — monitor front-week liquidity and elevated short-term flows to avoid being pinned into an aggressive short leg.

!IV extremely elevated (avg 63.4%) — while favorable for sellers, large implied skew and event risk can create sharp repricing; manage position size and use defined-risk where possible.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.