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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $445.27EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.50
3.5% from close
Price Gap
-45.27
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
86
High premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Sell out-of-the-money call spreads and put spreads in near-dated expirations to capture elevated premium with defined risk
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $450 or below $405; sudden IV collapse
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (63.9%) is extremely elevated vs VIX (17.3) with massive skew, especially in near-dated puts (250% IV)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure shows steep skew for puts near expiry; mid-term IVs around 45-50% are relatively lower, suggesting premium selling opportunities in 1-2 week expirations

⚡Near-dated puts at 250% IV vs calls at 150% — extreme put skew favoring put sellers
🎯Multiple max pain levels ($405, $425, $430) within 5% of spot ($433.60) increase pinning probability

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+315.7M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins at $405 (1DTE), $425 (4DTE), $430 (6DTE); call OI wall $475-$600, put floor $250-$300

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; spot near max pain zone but positive gamma (GEX +$315.7M) and bullish flow reduce downside pin risk

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $430.00/$420.00 put spread
Sell $430/$420 put spread to capture inflated put premium with defined risk, benefiting from time decay and stable spot.
Credit: $3.69-$4.51
Max loss: $5.49
BE: $425.49
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $410.55 (invalidation).
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $460.00/$465.00 call spread
Sell $460/$465 call spread to capture call premium, betting spot stays below resistance.
Credit: $1.57-$1.93
Max loss: $3.07
BE: $461.93
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $450 (invalidation).

Risk Alerts

!Expiration tomorrow (5/15) magnifies gamma sensitivity and pin risk
!High IV skew means time decay accelerates if spot stays near current levels
!Spot 9.5% above max pain, so bullish momentum could push further away from pin levels
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.