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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $392.50EOD only
Max Pain
$375.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.27
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-17.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Avoid naked premium selling; use defined-risk put spreads or iron condors to sell premium with limited downside
Invalidation: Close below $363 or VIX spike >28 with heavy skew widening
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV elevated (~63.5) vs VIX 19.5 — implied risk premium rich near-dated
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-week fat skew and very high 3d/10d IVs; term curve gently decays thereafter

⚠️Very high short-dated put IV (3d put IV 138%) creates costly tail risk
📌Max-pain clustering around $380-$390 supports pinning near term

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+82.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,564 (22.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy 22% below spot; call wall $410-$500; gamma flip near $300 underlying price level

Verdict: Elevated pin risk into nearby expiries given OI concentration and dealer GEX +82M

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-15 $397.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $400.00 call
Sell May‑15 $397.50, buy Jun‑18 $400 to monetize term structure: short leg decays fast; long leg limits upside risk and vega exposure across the event.
Debit: $7.31-$8.94
Max loss: $8.94
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close or roll short leg before earnings; trim/close if TSLA>380 or IV spikes/VIX>28 or skew widens; treat max_loss as defined by debit paid.

Risk Alerts

!High short-dated put skew → outsized tail vega
!Dealer positive GEX can amplify pin moves
!Use defined-risk structures; watch $363/$410 guardrails and expiry deltas for rapid repositioning
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.