base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Term structure: Short-dated puts (1d IV 163) imply fear; term structure downward sloping after 1d, OTM skew persists
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+102.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,970 (28.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max Pain pins $420(6/5), $425(6/8), $430(6/10); Call wall $450-$600, Put floor $260-$300
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$380.00 put wing and $420.00/$430.00 call wing
Sells $390/$380 put and $420/$430 call wings for 48-day earnings play, capturing elevated premium.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or by 2 weeks before expiry; adjust wings if spot approaches $410 or $430.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$380.00 put spread
Sells $390/$380 put spread, betting on support holding above $410.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches $389 invalidation; roll down if needed.
!High vol regime could spike IV on downside
!Gamma flip at $300 if spot drops
!Short-dated put tail risk