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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $405.05EOD only
Max Pain
$397.50
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.47
2.8% from close
Price Gap
-7.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Iron Condor
Invalidation: TSLA breaks below 352 or above 410
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 64.8% vs VIX 19.5 — IV significantly elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Short-term IV spikes (1d 37%, 3d 45%); call IV 78% on 1d, put IV 135% on 3d; longer-term IV around 46-48%. Steepness implies near-term tail risk.

🔥IV at 64.8% vs VIX 19.5; elevated premium selling opportunity.
⚠️3d put IV 135% — extreme tail risk pricing ahead of expiration.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-12.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,300 (21.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $410-500; Put floor $200-300; Max pain pins near $400-410.

Verdict: Spot below max pain; negative GEX and net put premium suggest pin to max pain zone possible but large move risk from negative gamma.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $352.50/$350.00 put wing and $400.00/$405.00 call wing
Sell put spread 352.50/350 and call spread 400/405 for credit.
Credit: $0.62-$0.76
Max loss: $4.24
BE: 351.74 / 400.76
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if spot nears wings.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $352.50 put + sell $400.00 call
Sell 352.50 put and 400 call for elevated premium.
Credit: $2.02-$2.46
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 350.04 / 402.46
Mgmt: Roll or close if spot breaches short strikes; consider stop-loss.
#3
Covered call
Buy shares + sell 2026-06-26 $400.00 call
Buy shares and sell 400 call to collect premium.
Credit: $1.49-$1.82
Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium
BE: $379.79
Mgmt: Hold shares; roll call if stock rallies above strike.

Risk Alerts

!Negative GEX (-$12.1M) amplifies directional moves; hedge risk for short options.
!Steep term structure indicates elevated short-term volatility event risk.
!Spot below max pain with bearish dealer flows suggests downside pressure.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.