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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $354.72EOD only
Max Pain
$365.00
Next expiry Oct 19, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.85
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+10.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Oct 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 16, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Long Put Spread
Invalidation: Breakout above $420, below $360, or IV collapse below 40%
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV significantly above VIX
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-month IV extremely high; back-end ~50%

📈IV term structure steep: 0DTE wings >180%; back-end ~50% — extreme pin risk
⚠️Dealer short gamma ($-21.8M GEX) amplifies spot moves — avoid naked positions

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-21.8M)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,891 (23.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $420/$422/$425; call wall $430-$500; put floor $260-$300; gamma flip $300

Verdict: High pin risk due to concentrated OI and 0DTE expiration

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $435.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $405.00 call
Sells expensive short-term premium while maintaining long call exposure for post-earnings move.
Debit: $17.89-$21.86
Max loss: $21.86
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor IV contraction; exit if stock breaks $360 or $420.

Risk Alerts

!Broad market selloff: SPY -2.58%, QQQ -4.8% elevates tail risk
!Short gamma dealer positioning can exacerbate moves
!High IV may contract rapidly
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.