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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $415.88EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.88
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+19.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
36
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 1, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative-to-Moderate: prefer 10–20 delta short strikes, 4–6 point widths on spreads, 2–6 week tenors (avoid front-week)
Primary: Defined-credit (short-dated spreads / iron condors) sized narrower due to IV>VIX richness and steep skew; avoid naked short options
Invalidation: Sustained break above $432.37 or rapid IV collapse below 40 that removes dealer pinning; clear resolution through max-pain band invalidates credit edge
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Underlying IV > VIX; TSLA rich vs index with pronounced front-week 0d/3d dislocation
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep near-term skew and elevated mid-term IVs; front-week prints unreliable with extreme bid/ask and thin liquidity

📌Max-pain cluster 368–372 aligns with dealer GEX — pinning pressure
⚠️Prohibit naked front-week sells: wide B/A, thin fills, and execution risk make front-week premium unreliable
🔧Prefer defined spreads with tight widths and 2–6 week tenors to capture skew while limiting leg-fill and assignment risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+695.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,999 (12.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~12.6% below spot around $350; max-pain at $368–372

Verdict: High pin and gamma risk near max-pain; concentrated puts raise rapid dealer hedging, sharp directional moves, and increased assignment/margin exposure

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $440.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $430.00 call
Sell May $440 / buy Sep $430 to monetize front>back skew while limiting delta exposure vs stock
Debit: $26.55-$32.45
Max loss: $32.45
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close or roll if TSLA breaches $432.37, or IV collapses below 40; keep widths tight (4–6 pts) and size small
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $430.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $400.00 call
Sell May $430 / buy Jun $400 to harvest rich front-month premium while retaining time spread
Debit: $17.14-$20.95
Max loss: $20.95
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Avoid front-week; tighten or exit into rapid pinning or >$432.37 break
#3
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-09-18 $405.00 call + sell 2026-05-22 $440.00 call
Buy Sep $405 LEAP + sell May $440 to collect short IV while owning long convexity
Debit: $35.64-$43.56
Max loss: $43.56
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor assignment risk into pin band; roll short calls or hedge with stock if assigned

Risk Alerts

!Do NOT sell naked front-week options — wide B/A and execution/leg-fill risk
!Use tight-width defined credit (10–20 delta short, 4–6 pt widths), avoid 0–1 week tenors
!Concentrated put OI creates rapid gamma amplification and directional jumps
!Assignment and elevated margin risk if short ITM into pin band
!Spot > $432.37 or VIX collapse invalidates thesis
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.