thetaOwl

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $435.79EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.82
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TSLA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads near the $350 pin / GEX concentrations (30–45 DTE)
Invalidation: Close below $337.70 (1-week EM lower guardrail) — that breaks the near-term pin support
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow mixed; +1 GEX positive (pinning +$84.6M); +1 spot ~At MP; +0.5 VIX 19.12 (calm market)

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 56.4% vs VIX 19.12 — TSLA IV is materially rich vs market
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Curve elevated across 18–95d (18d ATM 48.6%, 32d ATM 45.8%); front-week shows very high intraday skew (2d/4d spiking). Good selling opportunities in the 30–45 DTE band.

💰Avg IV 56.4% — vol-rich compared with VIX 19.12, favors premium sellers
⚠️Front-week IV is very noisy (2d/4d ATM 34.5%/38.6% then back to ~45% at 11–32d) — avoid naked through front-week event risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At (spot $352.42 vs max pain $350) — within ~0.7%

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$84.6M; concentrated GEX +$45.1M at $352.50 and +$15.0M at $350.00)

Gamma flip: ~$300.00Gamma flip around $300 — below that dealers become negative-gamma and moves can accelerate; not relevant to near-term trades unless >10% drop

OI concentrations: Call OI wall in $400–$500; near-term call OI clusters $350/$355/$360 and put clusters $340/$335; near-term GEX magnets at $352.50, $350, $347.50, $355

Verdict: Favorable — strong near-term pin/GEX concentration around $350–$352 supports put-credit structures and wings; increases probability of mean reversion into short strikes

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell 350/340 put spread 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)
Max pain and strong GEX magnets at $350–$352.50 (pinning) make selling downside verticals attractive; 32d IV ~45.8% (rich) so collect meaningful premium while keeping defined risk.
Credit: $3.50-$4.50
Max loss: $6.50
BE: $346.50
Mgmt: Take profits at 60–70% of max credit; roll down 1–2 strikes if short put >50% ITM (or if close < $347.50 GEX magnet); cut losses if underlying closes below $337.70 (1w EM lower) or if put spread costs >60% of max loss.
#2
iron condor
Sell 335/325 put spread + sell 355/365 call spread 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)
Wide two-sided defined-risk structure takes advantage of pinning into $350–$352 and elevated IV. Put side sits under strong short-term support; call side is allowed room up to ~365 (1w EM upper 367.15).
Credit: $4.00-$5.50
Max loss: $5.50
BE: Lower: 330.00 / Upper: 360.50
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max credit; if either short strike is touched, consider closing that wing or rolling 1 strike outward; cut loss and close full condor if underlying closes beyond the corresponding 1-week EM guardrail ($337.70 lower or $367.15 upper).
#3
cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 345 put 2026-05-01 (18 DTE)
Short-dated CSP collects rich front/near-term premium with spot near $352 and MP at $350. Use 18d for higher theta while keeping obligation limited to cash-secured assignment at $345.
Credit: $4.25-$4.75
Max loss: Unlimited down to zero (stock ownership if assigned); effective max loss = 345 - credit
BE: $340.75
Mgmt: Close at 60% of max profit or roll down-and-out if stock looks likely to trade below $337.70; do NOT hold naked through earnings (earnings 2026-04-21/22 ~9 days out). Cut losses if price gaps below $337.70 or if put trades >75% of notional.
#4
covered call
Sell 360 call 2026-05-01 (18 DTE) against shares
If already long TSLA, selling a 360 call at 18 DTE collects rich premium while staying above current spot. Offers a pick-up vs owning shares outright since IV is elevated.
Credit: $4.15-$4.50
Max loss: Downside = stock position (reduced by premium)
BE: $347.92
Mgmt: Take profits on the short call at 50–70% of max credit; if price approaches $355–$360 (short strike area), buy back and consider rolling out 1–2 weeks or up 5–10 strikes; be ready to close before earnings.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 2026-04-21 and 2026-04-22 (within ~9 days) — avoid naked short exposure through earnings; prefer defined-risk or close prior to announcement.
!Gamma flip ~ $300 — a >10% gap down would move TSLA into a regime where dealer hedging accelerates moves; defined-risk structures recommended if that tail event concerns you.
!Large concentrated flow at $340/$350 strikes (Top premium flows and unusual activity) — heavy call-side flow at $340/$350 can produce asymmetric short-squeeze risk; monitor flow and OI updates.
!Net premium = -$26.2M (net buyers) and P/C OI ratio 0.69 — buy-side interest can produce re-pricing; watch for sudden vol compression or directional buying.
!Pinning GEX +$84.6M near $352.50 — while this favors pins, it also increases gamma pin-risk intraday; if price becomes stickier to a strike, be prepared to manage early assignment (for short calls) or roll puts.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.