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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.59EOD only

Max Pain

$425.00

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.20

1.9% from close

Price Gap

-8.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

TSLA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment already baked into base; -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP per pre-computed; no override

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 63.7% vs VIX N/A — IV is elevated (63.7%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Short-dated IV skews down into weeklies (2d ATM 53.2%), then a modestly lower flat 30-45d (30d ATM 49.2%, 37d ATM 48.2%, 44d ATM 49.1%) — good pick for 30-45 DTE sells.

💰Avg IV 63.7% — rich environment for collecting theta

⚠️Gamma regime: Trending with Total GEX -$71.4M — dealer short-gamma raises directional risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below (pre-computed: Spot $343.25 vs Max Pain near-term $360 / trend: Rising)

GEX regime: Trending (Total GEX -$71.4M) — net negative GEX suggests dealers are short gamma; increases chance of trend acceleration

OI concentrations: Call OI wall concentrated $400-$500; put OI floor concentrated at $230; near-term gated GEX pin magnets at $360/$362.50/$357.50/$355.00 (per Near-Term GEX Concentration).

Verdict: Threatening — localized pin magnets exist at ~$360, but overall negative GEX (‑$71.4M) and a trending gamma regime make stable pinning unreliable; credit sellers should prefer defined-risk structures and stay defensive.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 325/315 put spread 2026-05-08 (30 DTE)

30 DTE captures rich IV (30d ATM ~49.2%) while staying a few percent below spot; 325 is inside the 1-week EM upper/lower bounds but outside immediate EM downside; put OI clusters exist below (330/335) supporting a floor. Defined-risk spread reduces assignment and gamma exposure in a trending GEX regime.

Credit: $1.20-$1.80

Max loss: $8.80

BE: 323.8 - 323.2 (approx) depending on credit; exact BE = 325 - credit

Mgmt: Take profits at 60-70% of max credit; if TSLA closes below $329.12 (1-week EM lower guardrail) consider closing or rolling wider/down; cut losses if spread value >50% of max loss or if price action shows accelerating trend (daily close < $322).

iron condor

Sell 355/365 call spread + 320/310 put spread 2026-05-08 (30 DTE)

Captures premium on both wings with 30 DTE IV elevated; uses defined-risk wings to limit exposure given negative GEX. Short call side sits under the heavier near-term call OI/pin cluster at $360-$365 (you get paid to respect that magnet); short put side sits above the heavier long-term put floor at $230 and near-term support bands (~$329–$332).

Credit: $1.80-$2.60

Max loss: $7.40

BE: Upper: 365 + (credit) / Lower: 320 - (credit) — approx 367.8 / 318.2 for mid credits

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is touched intraday, tighten or buy back that side and re-establish farther out; exit both sides if TSLA closes outside the 1-week EM bounds ($329.12/$357.38) or if the position moves to >50% of max loss on either side.

cash-secured put (naked put)

Sell 330 put 2026-05-08 (30 DTE) cash-secured

Higher credit (~$3.8–$4.6) for 30 DTE with ATM/near-ATM elevated IV; 330 sits just below the 1-week EM lower band ($329.12) — good entry if you are comfortable owning TSLA near $330. Use cash-secured approach to avoid assignment pain.

Credit: $3.80-$4.60

Max loss: Unlimited downside to $0 (but practical: $330 - credit)

BE: $326.20

Mgmt: Close at 50-65% profit; if TSLA breaks and closes below $329.12, roll down and widen spread or close; avoid naked puts through earnings (see risk alerts).

covered call

Sell 370 call 2026-05-08 (30 DTE) against long stock

If you already own TSLA, selling 370 calls collects elevated IV premium while giving upside to ~7.8% from spot; limited short-gamma exposure compared with naked short calls because you hold the underlying.

Credit: $1.20-$1.60

Max loss: Downside of stock position (not option-defined)

BE: $342.05

Mgmt: Take profits on short call at 60% of collected premium; if TSLA rallies strongly toward $360–$370 (max pain region), consider buying back and rolling up only if you intend to cap upside; monitor for rapid trend moves due to negative GEX.

calendar (debit/cross-month)

Sell 2026-04-17 (9d) 355 call / Buy 2026-05-08 (30d) 355 call (calendar)

Short front-week call collects rapid front-dated theta where IV is still elevated (9d ATM ~46%) while long month protects vs large moves; calendar benefits if near-term pinning toward $355–$360 persists.

Debit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: Premium paid (~0.6–1.2)

BE: Range depends on front-week theta decay; goal is small move toward short strike with IV steady

Mgmt: Close the front-week short by Thursday if extrinsic drops below target; take profits on the calendar if value doubles or if spot moves >4% away from 355; cut losses if IV collapses or if net debit >50% of paid.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings scheduled 2026-04-21 and 2026-04-22 (within ~2 weeks) — avoid naked short premium through the print; prefer defined-risk or close positions before earnings.

!Total GEX -$71.4M (Trending gamma) — dealer short-gamma can amplify directional moves and create rapid one-way risk; favor defined-risk spreads and tighter management.

!Spot is below Max Pain ($360) and MP trend is rising — the market may have asymmetric upside pressure toward $360; short calls and tight-call wings are at elevated assignment risk if price moves up quickly.

!Large net premium flow concentrated on puts at $360/$355/$350 (net negative flow on calls) and unusual volume in near-term ITM calls and puts (e.g., 2026-04-10 347.50/340 calls and 347.50 put) — short-term directional activity could spike; monitor unusual flow intraday.

!IV is elevated (Avg IV 63.7%) — while this favors premium sellers, sudden IV expansion (tail events) can blow up wings; avoid oversized naked exposure and have clear roll/kill rules.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.