base 6.5 (base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP) — use pre-computed base score
Term structure: Very elevated short-dated IV (1d ATM 57.2% → 31d ATM 48.7%); small hump around 17d (52.0%) offering calendar/skew edges but overall high vol
Spot vs MP: Spot $346.65 is below max pain pins ($360 on 2026-04-08, $362.50 on 2026-04-10, $365 on 2026-04-13) — 3–6% below those near-dated MPs
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$75.7M) — dealers net short gamma at size, which historically amplifies directional moves
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip is ~ $300 — below that level dealers may amplify moves; currently far above flip so threat is to the downside if price falls toward $300
OI concentrations: Call OI wall concentrated $400–$500; put floor concentrated $230–$300; near-term pin magnets at $360 (+$4.7M GEX), $365 (+$3.1M), $370 (+$3.2M)
#1put spread
Sell 330 / Buy 320 put spread exp 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
Defined-risk premium selling near strong put OI and within 1w–1m EM bounds. 330 is near a concentration in flow and sits inside the 1w EM lower bound ($330.70) — pricing rich (31d ATM ~48.7%), gives a favorable yield vs risk while keeping buffer to the gamma flip (~$300).
Mgmt: Take 60–70% of max profit; roll down 1 strike and out 1 expiry if price tests 330; close if underlying closes below $330.70 or if credit falls <25% of initial; cut loss if short put tested intraday and spread value >50% of max loss.
#2put spread
Sell 335 / Buy 325 put spread exp 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
Slightly wider short strike (335) trades richer given current ATM vols and offers higher credit while still inside the 1–2 week expected move bounds. Works in high-IV, mixed-flow regime where defined risk is preferred over naked puts.
Mgmt: Take 50–65% profit; roll down 5–10 points if price approaches 335 (prefer same-width roll down & out); exit if underlying closes below $330.70 or if position reaches 50% of max loss.
#3iron condor
Sell 340/330 put spread + Sell 370/380 call spread exp 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
Market is rangey near-term with clear pin magnets at 360–370 but also negative GEX. A balanced 10-point wings iron condor collects rich premium from both sides while limiting risk. Use 31 DTE to capture high theta with defined risk should dealers push price.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if short put tested, close or roll that side (roll down and out 1–2 weeks) — if short call tested, same on upside. If underlying closes outside 1w EM bounds ($330.70/$362.60), re-assess and tighten stops.
#4covered call (income for holders)
Sell May 8 380 call (1 contract per 100 shares) — short strike 380
For long TSLA holders who want to collect premium without removing upside up to $380; 380 call yields modest premium while staying above near-term expected move (31d upper bound $385.60 nearing but 1w bound $362.60), keeps considerable upside optionality.
Mgmt: Buy to close at 50–60% of max profit; close before earnings (Apr 21–22) if still short; if stock runs through 380 with momentum, consider rolling up-and-out to capture assignment and keep upside exposure.
!Upcoming earnings: 2026-04-21 and 2026-04-22 — avoid selling naked through these dates; prefer closing or de-risking ahead of announcements.
!Negative total GEX (-$75.7M) and 'Gamma: Trending' regime — dealers short gamma can accelerate moves; prefer defined-risk spreads, keep hedges.
!Max pain is rising (near-dated MPs at $360→$365) while spot is below — short-call credit risk if price rallies into 360–370 pin magnets (GEX +$4.7M at $360).
!Unusual flow: large ITM call activity and heavy net put/call premium flows at strikes $330/$340/$500 — institutional directional activity could produce sudden skewed moves.
!High IV environment (Avg IV 60.7%) — while premium is attractive, sudden volatility spikes or IV term structure shifts can widen spreads; manage positions proactively and use defined risk.