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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $396.68EOD only
Max Pain
$407.50
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.38
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+10.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
55
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA 43d to earnings. Near-term options heavy $395-$405. IV elevated. Beat rate 40%. Put OI $300 limits downside. Pinning near $408 max pain.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: 6/10 expiry pinning $395-$400; put floor $300. Earnings far, IV crush after Friday.
📊Max pain $408 but OI pinning $395-$405.
⚠️Put OI $300 floor, gamma risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,200 (24.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-10 (1d): ±$9.38 (2.4%)
  • 2026-06-12 (3d): ±$17.18 (4.3%)
  • 2026-06-15 (6d): ±$21.40 (5.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term elevated; longer-dated normal.

Crush estimate: N/A for near-term.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put OI at $300.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available.

Directional bias: Bearish given price below MP.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $387.30/$406.05; 1w $375.28/$418.08
3Max pain pins: $408 (2026-06-10); $410 (2026-06-12); $415 (2026-06-15)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 6/10 $395 calls 58k vol (105x OI) and $405 puts 77k vol (60x OI).

Indicates pinning $395-$405.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $395.00/$390.00 put wing and $405.00/$410.00 call wing
Credit: $3.58-$4.37
Max loss: $0.63
Max gain: $4.37
BE: 390.63 / 409.37
Trigger: Exit if short strikes tested; roll wings if needed.
Defined risk range-bound play near max pain; highest probability given pinning and bearish bias.
Outperforms: Sells OTM wings on both sides to collect premium; profits if TSLA stays within $390-$405.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $390.00 put + sell $410.00 call
Credit: $16.18-$19.77
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $19.77
BE: 370.23 / 429.77
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit; stop loss if stock breaks beyond strikes.
Higher premium than iron condor but unlimited risk; suitable for high confidence in range.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call; benefits from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $400.00 put
Debit: $9.38-$11.47
Max loss: $11.47
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close near-term at expiration; manage long put if earnings reaction.
Bearish directional tilt via term structure; near-term decay benefits with back-month protection.
Outperforms: Short near-term put decays quickly; long back-month put gains if TSLA falls.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $400.00 call
Debit: $10.60-$12.95
Max loss: $12.95
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Pre-earnings term structure steep; near-term vol decay benefits short call while long back-month retains upside exposure.
Outperforms: Exploit elevated near-term call IV relative to back-month via call calendar before earnings.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pin risk at $395-$405.
!Gamma flip from $300 put wall.
!Earnings IV expansion later.

What to Watch

?Price vs $400 and $408 max pain.
?6/10 $395 call and $405 put volume.
?NASDAQ sector drag.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.