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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $406.43EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
3.3% from close
Price Gap
-6.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning to $400; strong dealer gamma and flow alignment support near-term consolidation with upside risk on break above $430 resistance.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive pinning +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP +1 VIX 18 = 9.
Supports: Positive GEX ($207.9M), bullish flow, spot above MP, low VIX.
Conflicts: High vol may cap upside if IV collapses; gamma flip at $300 is distant.
📌Max pain $400 pinned across three expiries
🔺Positive dealer gamma (+$207.9M) reinforces pin
⚠️Gamma flip at $300 poses tail risk on broad selloff

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV (~30-40%?) relative to VIX; driven by elevated demand for options.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX (+207.9M) and strong pinning to $400 max pain across three expiries; gamma flip at ~$300.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow with net premium positive; dealer hedging supports spot near MP.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $400 MP; dealer gamma positive supports mean reversion to pin.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple option expirations (Jun 12,15,17) pinning at $400; event-driven window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$393.10$419.75
Pinning to $400 caps range; range $393-$420.
Next 1 week
$386.35$426.50
Break above $430 targets $437 resistance; vol supports.
Next 2 weeks
$375.50$437.35
Continued momentum to $437; support at $376.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-12); $400 (2026-06-15); $400 (2026-06-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $393.10/$419.75; 1w $386.35/$426.50
Support: $400.00 · $375.50
Resistance: $430.00 · $437.35
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,020 (26.2% below spot)
Structural: Support $400 (max pain), $376; resistance $430, $437. Gamma flip $300. Guardrails: 2d $393/$420, 1w $386/$427.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+207.9M

DEX: +128.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,020 (26.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer long gamma ($+207.9M) and delta (+128.3M shares). Gamma flip ~$300 from put concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV elevated vs VIX 17.68; premium priced.

Term structure: Not available; likely backwardation near expiries.

Skew: Skew rich; no actionable structure identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $1.127B bullish, put/call volume ratio 0.65 favoring calls, OI ratio 0.69 confirms call dominance.

Directional prints: 9.6 call 405 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 189909, OI 6084, ratio 31.2. Large call volume; likely bought (bullish). Preferred read: aggressive call buying. 18.4 call 402.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 127762, OI 2884, ratio 44.3. High relative volume; likely bought calls. Preferred read: bullish flow.

Unusual: 18.4 call 402.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 44.3, IV 18.4%. High relative vol; likely bought, bearish if sold. Preferred read: bought (bullish). 8.6 put 402.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 47903, OI 1212, ratio 39.5. Very low premium (0.01) suggests sold puts. Preferred read: sold (bullish). 9.6 call 405 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 189909, OI 6084, ratio 31.2. Massive call volume; likely bought. Preferred read: bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $400 support
!Vol collapse reducing premium
!Gamma flip at $300 on tail event
!Upside break above $430 could accelerate

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $405.00/$455.00 call spread
Why now: Call dominance and dealer gamma support upside; limited risk defined spread targets break above resistance.
Upside capped at $430; premium decay if stock stays pinned near $400.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00/$345.00 put spread
Why now: High put premiums and call skew; sell put spread at support to collect premium with defined risk.
If stock drops below $390, max loss limited; tail risk from earnings miss.
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Stock likely to hold $400 support; cash-secured put earns premium and allows entry at lower cost.
If stock drops below strike, obligation to buy shares at higher price; earnings volatility.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $435.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $360.00 put
Why now: Call dominance and flow show upside conviction; risk reversal cheapens upside via put sale.
Unlimited upside? Actually defined via call long; put short exposure if stock drops; margin requirement.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $405.00/$455.00 call spread
Captures upside break above $430 with limited loss.
Why this play: Defined risk upside capture leveraging call dominance and dealer gamma near support; best risk/reward for bullish thesis.
Debit: $15.23-$18.62
Max loss: $18.62
BE: $423.62
Mgmt: Exit near $430 or at expiration; manage as price approaches. Use stop at $395.
Traders seeking capped risk with high probability of success.
#2
Bull Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-24 $435.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $360.00 put
Upside exposure financed by selling put at support.
Why this play: Cheap upside via put sale, aligns with flow conviction; unlimited gain potential.
Debit: $7.74-$9.46
Max loss: $360.00
BE: $360.00
Mgmt: Roll put if support breaks; take profit on call if $450 hit.
Aggressive bulls willing to take assignment risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00/$345.00 put spread
Sell put spread at $370/$345 to profit from bullish bias and call skew.
Why this play: Collects premium at key support with defined risk; benefits from time decay and volatility contraction.
Credit: $5.11-$6.24
Max loss: $18.76
BE: $363.76
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if stock breaks below $400; adjust strikes if needed.
Income-focused traders expecting sideways to higher.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFTSLA holds above $400 and rallies above $420 → Buy $405/$455 bull call spread (2026-07-24)
IFTSLA between $390 and $410 with IV30 below 40% → Sell $370/$345 put credit spread (2026-07-24)
IFTSLA between $395 and $405 and put/call volume ratio below 0.5 → Buy $435 call / sell $360 put risk reversal (2026-07-24)
Exit Triggers
EXITTSLA breaks below $400 → Exit all bullish trades including call spreads and put sales

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with key support at $400 (max pain) and resistance at $430. Favor bull call spread on break above $420; put credit spread for premium near $400; risk reversal for cheap upside. Invalidation at $400.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.