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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $406.43EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
3.3% from close
Price Gap
-6.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
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Outlook

Bullish bias into $400 pinning, strong dealer gamma, bullish flow, spot near MP, high vol supports but gamma flip caps.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow, +1 pinning, +1 MP, +0.5 VIX
Supports: Bullish flow, GEX, MP pin
Conflicts: High vol, IV rich
📈Max pain $400 pin; dealer gamma bullish.
⚠️High vol regime; sharp moves but $300 flip caps.
✅Spot at MP; alignment supports pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV; VIX 19 supports expansion.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: GEX +$87.8M, flip ~$300.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium positive, low P/C.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $400 MP; <1% distance.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain expiries 12-17 Jun; dealer alignment.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$385.65$412.65
MP pin lifts.
Next 1 week
$375.05$423.25
Drift to $405.
Next 2 weeks
$365.67$432.62
Resistance $432.62, flip risk $300.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-12); $400 (2026-06-15); $405 (2026-06-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $385.65/$412.65; 1w $375.05/$423.25
Support: $365.67
Resistance: $400.00 · $430.00 · $432.62
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,020 (24.8% below spot)
Structural: MP $400; EM:2d 385.65/412.65,1w 375.05/423.25; S365.67,R400,430,432.62; flip$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+87.8M

DEX: +127.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,020 (24.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX+$87.8M,DEX+127.5M; flip~$300(put OI 22k); long gamma near $400.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX 19; elevated vol.

Term structure: Contango; front-end pinned by expiries.

Skew: Call skew high; sell call spreads at $430 or buy put spreads for tail.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong call premium of $780M with P/C vol 0.71 indicates bullish flow dominance.

Directional prints: 57.8 call 390 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 15.1x; heavy call volume likely aggressive buying; sold side less probable. 58.8 call 387.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 21.6x; significant call buying suggests bullish sentiment; seller unlikely. 59.5 call 382.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 14.8x; robust call activity indicates bullish positioning; mostly bought.

Unusual: 57.9 put 387.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 16.9x; heavy put volume but likely hedging against call dominance; could be sold. 57.3 put 390 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 13.0x; large put activity may be protective; selling probable given call bias. 63.5 call 377.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 24.2x; extreme ratio suggests aggressive spec buying; sold side unlikely.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip $300
!High vol volatility
!Macro risk
!Pin failure

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$430.00 call spread
Why now: Capture upside drift into earnings using defined-risk call spread; high vol supports premium.
Gamma flip above $400 could cap; max loss if spot declines below long strike.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-17 $365.00/$345.00 put spread
Why now: Collect time premium with defined risk; high IV boosts credit; spot near support.
Unexpected downside move below short strike causes max loss; gamma exposure near expiry.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $415.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $355.00 put
Why now: Expresses directional bullish view with low upfront cost; benefits from vol term structure.
Unlimited downside if spot plunges; margin requirement for short put.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$430.00 call spread
Capture upside drift to $400+ with limited risk.
Why this play: Direct bullish bias into earnings, defined risk, high vol supports premium.
Debit: $10.13-$12.38
Max loss: $12.38
BE: $412.38
Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $365 or vol collapses.
Traders expecting gradual rally to $400-430 by July earnings.
#2
Bullish risk reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $415.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $355.00 put
Unlimited upside with downside protection via sold put; cheap if bullish.
Why this play: Strong directional view with low upfront cost; benefits from vol term structure.
Debit: $13.39-$16.36
Max loss: $355.00
BE: $355.00
Mgmt: Roll put up if spot nears $355; take profit on call at $430.
Aggressive traders seeking leveraged bullish exposure.
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $365.00/$345.00 put spread
Neutral-to-bullish yield enhancement on expected support at $365.
Why this play: Collects premium with defined risk, high IV boosts credit, spot near support.
Credit: $3.91-$4.79
Max loss: $15.21
BE: $360.21
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $365 or vol spikes abnormally.
Income-focused traders comfortable with bearish tail risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above 365.67 and rallies toward 400 with bullish momentum. → Buy 2026-07-17 $400/$430 call spread at 10.13–12.38.
IFSpot near 365.67 support with bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish candle, RSI > 50). → Sell 2026-07-17 $365/$345 put spread for 3.91–4.79 credit.
IFSpot breaks and holds above 400 on strong volume. → Enter 2026-08-21 $415 call / $355 put risk reversal for 13.39–16.36.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot reaches 430 resistance with slowing momentum or bearish divergence. → Take partial profits on bull call spread; tighten stop.
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below 365.67 invalidation. → Close all long positions; exit put credit spread if held.
EXITSpot approaches gamma flip at 300 or IV collapses unexpectedly. → Exit all bullish positions immediately.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into $400 pinning with strong dealer gamma. Key support 365.67; resistance 400,430,432.62. High vol supports premium selling. Top play: bull call spread for defined risk upside. Risk: gamma flip at $300 and macro events. Monitor vol and spot momentum.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.