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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $396.68EOD only

Max Pain

$407.50

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.38

2.4% from close

Price Gap

+10.82

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish tilt; negative dealer gamma and spot below MP favor downside toward $353 support. Mixed flow and high vol caution near pin levels.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, -0.5 spot distance from MP.

Supports: Negative dealer gamma, SPY/QQQ sell-off.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol, pinning $400-$410.

📉GEX -$79.7M, flip $300

📌Max pain $400-$410

⚠️Spot 4.6% below MP

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol; VIX 22.22, sharp SPY/QQQ drop.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma; GEX -$79.7M, flip $300.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net premium neutral, but GEX/flow aligned.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP $400, 4.6% gap, pin risk.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, negative gamma, broad EM range support multi-week directional move.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$366.06$397.11

Resist $397, support $366; below MP.

Next 1 week

$361.09$402.09

Range $361-$402; bias lower.

Next 2 weeks

$353.09$410.09

Range $353-$410; support test likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-10); $408 (2026-06-12); $410 (2026-06-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $366.06/$397.11; 1w $361.09/$402.09

Support: $353.09

Resistance: $400.00 · $410.09

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,052 (21.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $353; resistance $400/$410. EM guardrails: 2d $366/$397, 1w $361/$402, 2w $353/$410. Gamma flip $300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-79.7M

DEX: +127.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,052 (21.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma (GEX -$79.7M, DEX +127M). Flip $300 amplifies downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX, high vol regime.

Term structure: Contango; event kinks June 12/15.

Skew: Put skew high; consider put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$775M (negative) from heavy put selling outweighing OTM call buying.

Directional prints: 4.3 put 380 OTM 2026-06-10 — vol/OI 61, low IV 4.3%. Likely sold for premium collection; bearish bias. 8 call 385 OTM 2026-06-10 — vol/OI 142, IV 8%. Aggressive OTM call buying (bought); bullish gamma speculation. 7.8 put 382.5 ITM 2026-06-10 — vol/OI 59, IV 7.8%. Sold for credit; reinforces bearish stance.

Unusual: 310.9 call 850 OTM 2026-06-12 — vol/OI 290, IV 311%. Extreme low-probability lotto buy; negligible premium. 5 call 382.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — vol/OI 167, IV 5%. Huge volume in cheap OTM call; unusually low IV. 4.3 put 380 OTM 2026-06-10 — vol/OI 61, IV 4.3%. High volume put with low IV; likely sold.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $410 resistance

!Positive catalyst reversing sell-off

!Pinning at $400 max pain

!IV contraction reducing option value

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $350.00 put Why now: Dealer gamma negative, spot below MP, heavy put selling. Use 72 DTE to span earnings.	Time decay and vol contraction if price stabilizes.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $350.00/$325.00 put spread Why now: Reduces cost and vega vs long put; negative flow supports downside.	Max loss if spot stays above short strike; pin risk near $400.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $445.00/$510.00 call spread Why now: Low probability of upside break; heavy put selling suggests cap. Use 72 DTE for theta decay.	If spot rallies above short strike, max loss is width minus credit.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $350.00/$325.00 put spread

Buy $350/$325 put spread to profit from expected decline with reduced vega and lower cost.

Why this play: Cost-effective bearish play with defined risk, capitalizing on negative dealer gamma and spot below MP.

Debit: $6.59-$8.06

Max loss: $8.06

BE: $341.94

Mgmt: Exit if spot rallies above $400 invalidation; manage for theta decay.

Traders seeking capped risk and bearish exposure into earnings.

Long Put

Buy 2026-08-21 $350.00 put

Buy $350 put to gain from downside move; high leverage but unlimited loss risk.

Why this play: Direct bearish bet with high payout potential, supported by heavy put selling and low IV.

Debit: $16.90-$20.65

Max loss: $20.65

BE: $329.35

Mgmt: Set stop at 1.5x entry cost; close early if spot approaches $350.

Aggressive traders willing to risk higher premium for asymmetric upside.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $445.00/$510.00 call spread

Sell $445/$510 call spread to collect premium, betting spot stays below $445.

Why this play: Bearish play on capped upside; low probability but defined risk and theta decay.

Credit: $7.85-$9.60

Max loss: $55.40

BE: $454.60

Mgmt: Monitor for break above $400; close at 50% max profit or stop loss at 2x credit.

Income-focused traders expecting sideways to lower price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf TSLA breaks below support $353.09 with volume → Buy 2026-08-21 $350/$325 put spread for $6.59-$8.06

IFIf TSLA approaches $353 with bearish momentum → Buy 2026-08-21 $350 put for $16.90-$20.65

Exit Triggers

EXITIf TSLA rallies above $400 invalidation → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish tilt; negative dealer gamma, spot below MP. Support $353, resistance $400/$410. Prefer Bear Put Spread for cost efficiency. Invalidation above $400.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.