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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $396.68EOD only

Max Pain

$407.50

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.38

2.4% from close

Price Gap

+10.82

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish bias driven by gamma pinning toward $408 max pain, but mixed flow and below-key resistance cap upside. Elevated vol supports premium, but contradictory signals warrant caution.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5 from mixed signals; adjusted -1 for flow/gamma conflict, +1 for pinning support, +0.5 for elevated VIX; net 5.5.

Supports: Positive GEX pinning, high vol environment, spot below max pain.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, contradictory signals, below key resistance at $400.

📌Spot $387 below $408 max pain – pinning magnet

⚠️Mixed flow with puts heavy – caution on conviction

📊Positive GEX $27.1M supports near-term stability

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical range, consistent with event uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $+27.1M, pinning near $408 max pain for June 10; gamma flip at ~$300.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; puts dominate but not extreme.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain, potential upward drift toward $408.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near monthly expiry with high gamma and pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$387.30$406.05

Pinning to $408 max pain.

Next 1 week

$375.28$418.08

Sideways drift post-expiry, range $375-$418.

Next 2 weeks

$368.53$424.83

Wider range $368-$425, event risk diminishing.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $408 (2026-06-10); $410 (2026-06-12); $415 (2026-06-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $387.30/$406.05; 1w $375.28/$418.08

Support: $368.53

Resistance: $400.00 · $407.50 · $424.83

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,200 (24.4% below spot)

Structural: Support at $368.53 (structural gamma flip); resistance at $400, $407.50 (call wall), $424.83 (max pain June 15).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+27.1M

DEX: +122.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,200 (24.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma $+27.1M, positive dex +122.3M shares; gamma flip at $300 put wall.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV elevated vs VIX at 19.87, implying event risk premium; rich for near-term options.

Term structure: Likely backwardated near expiry (June 10) with kink; long-dated vol lower.

Skew: Put skew elevated; potential vol premium selling post-event.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$447M, put-heavy flow with aggressive put buying on 405 strike.

Directional prints: 42.5 put 405 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol 77.5k vs OI 1.3k, ratio 60.4; aggressive put buying bearish. 40.6 put 395 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 68.3k vs OI 1.9k, ratio 36.5; additional put buying near ATM. 40.3 call 395 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol 58.3k vs OI 0.6k, ratio 105.5; massive call opening, possibly hedging.

Unusual: 40.3 call 395 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 105.5x, extremely high; unusual call activity. 42.5 put 405 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 60.4x, very high; aggressive put buying. 49.4 put 412.5 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol 17.4k vs OI 0.5k, ratio 33.8; high IV, notable put.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to reach max pain and reverses

!Flow turns net short, increasing downside pressure

!Gamma flip triggered below $300

!Broader market selloff (QQQ -1.15%) drags TSLA

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put spread Why now: Put-heavy flow at 405 suggests support; max pain at 408; selling 380/375 put spread captures vol premium.	Upside limited to premium; max loss 5 pts if TSLA drops below 375 through earnings.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00/$420.00 call spread Why now: Max pain at 408, bullish flow; limited upside but defined risk; capture post-earnings move.	Max loss if TSLA below 400; theta decay if no move; capped upside at 420.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $400.00/$405.00 call wing Why now: Contradictory signals cap upside/downside; premium harvest with defined wings.	Breakout beyond wings causes max loss; narrow range requires precision.

Top Plays

Iron Condor for Mixed Signals

Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $400.00/$405.00 call wing

Sell 370/365 put and 400/405 call spreads, capturing theta with max pain pinning near 408.

Why this play: Contradictory flow and capped upside/downside make iron condor ideal to harvest premium with defined wings.

Credit: $3.69-$4.51

Max loss: $0.49

BE: 365.49 / 404.51

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust wings if spot breaches range.

Traders expecting range-bound price action around max pain.

Put Credit Spread on Put Support

Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put spread

Sell 370/365 put spread, betting spot stays above 370 due to support from put flow and max pain.

Why this play: Aggressive put buying at 405 suggests support; selling puts captures premium with defined risk.

Credit: $1.67-$2.04

Max loss: $2.96

BE: $367.96

Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below 368.53 or hold to expiration for max gain.

Traders with neutral-to-bullish bias seeking premium income.

Bull Call Spread for Upside

Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00/$420.00 call spread

Buy 400/420 call spread, targeting move toward resistance while limiting risk.

Why this play: Bullish lean but capped upside; defined-risk call spread captures potential post-earnings move.

Debit: $7.31-$8.94

Max loss: $8.94

BE: $408.94

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below invalidation or take profit near resistance.

Traders expecting a modest upside move but wanting capped risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFif TSLA stays between 370 and 400 → Sell 2026-08-21 $370/$365 put and $400/$405 call iron condor

IFif TSLA holds above 368.53 support → Sell 2026-08-21 $370/$365 put spread

IFif TSLA breaks above 400 resistance → Buy 2026-08-21 $400/$420 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITif TSLA drops below 368.53 → Close 2026-08-21 $370/$365 put spread

EXITif TSLA drops below 368.53 → Close 2026-08-21 $400/$420 call spread

EXITif TSLA breaks outside 370-400 range → Close iron condor

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bullish bias with max pain near $408. Use iron condor for range, put credit spread on support, or bull call spread on breakout. Manage risk if spot breaks $368.53.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.