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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $391.00EOD only
Max Pain
$422.50
Next expiry Jun 8, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+31.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
72
High premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from strong bullish flow, positive gamma pinning near $405, and high vol supporting upside within key levels.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive pinning +1 spot at MP +0.5 VIX 19 = 9.5
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot at max pain, low VIX
Conflicts: High vol may cause instability; gamma flip risk at $300
📈Bullish flow with $138.7M GEX supports upside
📍Spot at max pain $405; pinning likely
⚠️Gamma flip at $300 is tail risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical range; VIX 18.92, TSLA implied vol high.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $138.7M, pinning spot near $405, flip at $300.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $405 max pain.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiration pinning with bullish flow and high vol suggests short-term event-like dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$396.63$421.28
Gamma pinning supports upside within range
Next 1 week
$386.18$431.73
Flow supportive, resistance $430
Next 2 weeks
$378.70$439.20
Wider range, support $378.70

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-06-08); $412 (2026-06-10); $412 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $396.63/$421.28; 1w $386.18/$431.73
Support: $405.00 · $378.70
Resistance: $430.00 · $439.20
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,939 (26.6% below spot)
Structural: 2d $396.63/$421.28; 1w $386.18/$431.73; support $405/$378.70; resistance $430/$439.20; gamma flip ~$300

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+138.7M

DEX: +124.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,939 (26.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$138.7M, DEX +124.0M shares, gamma flip at ~$300 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX; high vol premium suggests elevated uncertainty.

Term structure: Steep contango with near-term expiry kink.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling OTM puts on pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Call-heavy net $728.8M, P/C vol 0.66, indicates bullish premium flow.

Directional prints: 14.6 call 405 ITM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 72x, premium $3.93; likely bought calls for bullish bet. 8.1 put 410 ITM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 80x, premium $1.16; probably bought puts for hedging or bearish tilt.

Unusual: 3.7 put 407.5 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 207x, $0.01; unusual OTM put opening, downside speculation. 7.8 call 412.5 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 133x, $0.01; unusual OTM call opening, bullish bet or gamma.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $300
!Breakout above $430 triggering dealer hedging
!Volatility crush post-expiration

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $430.00/$435.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk bullish bet with high OI at 400/420, aligns with premium call flow.
If stock reverses below 400, spread loses value; earnings miss could cause IV crush.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $405.00/$400.00 put spread
Why now: OTM put premium at 390/385 earns theta decay; supported by call-heavy flow.
Sharp drop below 385 leads to max loss; earnings gap risk.
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $405.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish bias and elevated vol make cash-secured put attractive for premium capture.
If stock craters below strike, assignment leads to unrealized losses.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $430.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $405.00 put
Why now: Call-heavy flow and upward momentum favor upside; put sale finances the call.
Downside risk if stock declines sharply below short put; unlimited upside but capped by put short.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $430.00/$435.00 call spread
Buy $430/$435 call spread to capture upside with limited risk and high open interest support.
Why this play: Defined-risk bullish bet aligning with heavy call flow and gamma pinning near $405.
Debit: $1.64-$2.01
Max loss: $2.01
BE: $432.01
Mgmt: Exit at 50% of max gain or if TSLA falls below $405.
Traders seeking bullish event exposure with capped risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $405.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell $405/$400 put spread to collect premium with defined risk below $405.
Why this play: Earns theta decay from OTM puts, supported by bullish flow and elevated volatility.
Credit: $2.20-$2.69
Max loss: $2.31
BE: $402.31
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if TSLA breaches $405.
Income-focused traders expecting price above $405.
#3
Cash-Secured Put
Sell 2026-08-21 $405.00 cash-secured put
Sell $405 put to collect premium; risk if TSLA drops below $405.
Why this play: Captures high premium from elevated vol with bullish bias, though capital intensive.
Credit: $29.07-$35.53
Max loss: $369.47
BE: $369.47
Mgmt: Roll down if price approaches $405; consider assignment.
High-conviction bull traders willing to hold shares.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFTSLA holds above $405 with bullish flow → Buy $430/$435 call spread (tsla_1) for defined-risk upside
Adjustment Triggers
ADJTSLA approaches $430 resistance → Take partial profit on bull call spread (tsla_1) or roll up to $435/$440
Exit Triggers
EXITTSLA closes below $405 → Exit all bullish positions (tsla_1, tsla_2, tsla_3, tsla_4)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at $405, resistance $430/$439.2. Prefer bull call spread (tsla_1) for defined risk. Use put credit spread (tsla_2) for income if price holds. Exit below $405. Adjust near $430.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.