TSLA
Tesla, Inc.Close $426.01EOD onlyThis page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bullish skewed toward the max-pain ladder at $360–$365 with downward risk to the gamma flip near $300; Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary supports: large negative GEX (dealer short gamma) pushing trend-following hedging and heavy call OI/premium concentrated above spot that anchors MP at $360–$365. Conflicts: spot sits 3.7% below MP and IV is elevated (ATM 60.7%) which prices in tail risk and makes long premium expensive.
Conflicts: Spot $346.65 below MP $360-$365 (3.7%); high ATM IV 60.7% makes buying vol costly; mixed flow/P-C near 0.94 volume ratio.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-75.7M
DEX: +121.9M shares
Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,663 (13.5% below spot))
NTM gamma: NTM imbalances: concentrated positive GEX at $360 (+$4.7M), $365 (+$3.1M) act as pin magnets while aggregate GEX = -$75.7M (dealer short gamma) — if spot rises +2% dealers buy stock to hedge (amplifying upmove); if spot falls -2% dealers sell stock to hedge (accelerating downside). Expect larger hedging flows on 2%+ moves toward expiries.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 60.7% (rich vs typical equity levels); short-dated IV: 1d 57.2%, 3d 53.3%, 6d 45.4% — rich front-week pricing.
Term structure: Downward slope into 10–45d (mid-40s) then modest rise into 100–300d; notable kink: 1d–3d elevated (57.2→53.3) and jump back to 52.0% at 17d (4/24) suggests event or flow around those expiries.
Skew: Skew: calls concentrated and expensive at distant $400–$500 OI but mid-curve 30–45d IV is lower (47.5% at 45d) — calendar/diagonal opportunities selling near-term higher-IV leg vs buying 30–45d lower IV leg.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium -$87.0M (net call buying), largest premium sellers at deep calls ($500 net negative flows) and big call buys at $330/$340.
Directional prints: 59.2 call 342.5 ITM 2026-04-08 — C 342.5 exp 4/8 vol 51,407 vs OI 242 (212x) — could be large buyer of calls or short-call close; given net premium -$87M and other ITM call prints, interpretation leans to BUY calls (institutions) but selling interpretation possible. 57.8 call 345 ITM 2026-04-08 — C 345 exp 4/8 vol 57,833 vs OI 546 (106x) — large aggressive activity at ATM weeklies consistent with pinning/short-dated call accumulation; more likely buy-to-open call flow.
Unusual: 60.9 call 340 ITM 2026-04-08 — C 340 exp 4/8 vol 54,277 vs OI 633 (85.8x) — heavy short-dated call flow supporting upside magnet. 60.2 call 320 ITM 2026-04-10 — C 320 exp 4/10 vol 12,426 vs OI 211 (58.9x) — deep ITM activity may be roll/stock replacement; consistent with institutional directional exposure.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy TSLA stock at $346.65 | Dealer short gamma can accelerate downside; expensive capital tie-up. |
| Short stock | Weak | Short TSLA stock | High dealer short gamma and institutional call buying can create squeezes into $360–$365 pins. |
| Covered call | Moderate | Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 365 call | Capped upside at $365; early assignment near pin; IV erosion if rally happens. |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-22 320 put or sell 2026-05-22 330/320 put spread | Downside to gamma flip ~$300; prefer defined-risk put spread given negative GEX. |
| Long calls (directional) | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-04-24 360 call (17d) | High short-dated IV; needs >$360 move within DTE to pay off; exposure to theta decay. |
| Long puts / bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-05-22 300/320 put spread (buy 300, sell 320) | Costs high due to IV; protects into gamma flip zone; limited profit if only shallow pullback. |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-22 330/320 put spread + sell 365/375 call spread (defined-risk IC) | VIX spike or move >~$35 breaches wings; negative GEX increases directional move risk. |
| Calendar / diagonal (sell near-term high IV) | Strong | Sell 2026-04-08 (1d) ATM 345 call, buy 2026-05-22 345 call (sell higher-IV near-term, buy 45d) — sell 57.8% IV, buy 47.5% IV (~+10 vol-pt edge) | Execution and roll risk on expiry day; early pin moves can make front leg expensive. |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-05-22 320/365 diagonal (buy 45d 320 call, sell 101d/long-dated call?) | Complex; requires matching IV and term; benefits from upward MP trend and time decay selling nearer-term calls. |
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Tactical Summary
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