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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.59EOD only

Max Pain

$425.00

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.20

1.9% from close

Price Gap

-8.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside risk to $340 and upside magnet to $370. Confidence: 6.5/10. GEX -$63.1M (trending) and net premium -$331.4M (bearish flow) align, but spot 4.6% below max pain creates a gravitational pull higher.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP

Supports: GEX -$63.1M (trending), net premium -$331.4M (bearish), P/C vol 0.84 (put-heavy)
Conflicts: Spot below max pain ($370) creates pin risk upward; IV 59.1% is high but not extreme.

📊Max pain $370 vs spot $352.82 — pin magnet upward

⚡GEX -$63.1M — negative gamma accelerates moves

💰Net premium -$331.4M — institutional bearish flow

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.1% — high vol favors premium selling.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$63.1M — negative gamma trending regime accelerates moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$331.4M with P/C vol 0.84 — mixed but bearish institutional flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $352.82 below MP $370 — pin risk upward.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($370 → $400 over 20 expirations), GEX sign stable negative, flow regime consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$342.82$362.82

GEX negative accelerates downside; break above $362.82 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$336.92$368.72

Max pain $370 pin dominates; below $336.92 breaks support.

Next 2 weeks

$321.72$383.92

Max pain rising to $380-$400; flow may shift.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $370 (2026-04-06); $368 (2026-04-08); $368 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $342.82/$362.82; 1w $336.92/$368.72

Support: $340.00 · $330.00 · $325.00

Resistance: $370.00 · $380.00 · $385.00

Structural: Call OI wall $400-$500 caps upside; put floor $230-$230 distant.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-63.1M

DEX: +116.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Call gamma positive at $372.5/$385; put gamma negative at $340/$330. Dealer hedging sells on rallies, buys on dips.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.1% — high vol, no VIX data for direct comparison.

Term structure: Humped — 4/8 48.5% > 4/13 40.8% > 4/24 49.7%.

Skew: 4/8 vs 4/13 ~7.7 vol-pt differential — sell near-term, buy farther.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$331.4M bearish; P/C vol 0.84

Directional prints: call 350 ITM 2026-04-08 — Vol 34,158 vs OI 198 (172.5x) — likely bought calls for upside. put 347.5 OTM 2026-04-08 — Vol 22,504 vs OI 381 (59.1x) — likely sold puts for premium.

Unusual: 49.1 put 355 ITM 2026-04-08 — Vol 28,442 vs OI 1,142 (24.9x) — likely bought puts for downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma accelerates downside moves.

!Max pain $370 pin risk upward.

!Earnings 4/22 adds event vol.

!IV 59.1% — vol crush risk post-event.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $352.82	Negative gamma accelerates downside.
Short stock	Moderate	Short shares at $352.82	Max pain pin upward to $370.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares, sell $370 call 4/17	Shares drop below cost basis.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $340/$330 put spread 4/17	Break below $330.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $360 call 4/17	High IV 59.1% decays quickly.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Strong	Buy $350/$340 put spread 4/17	Max pain pin upward.
Iron condor	Moderate	$340/$330P x $370/$380C 4/17	Negative gamma breaks range.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/8 $350 call (IV 49.3%), buy 4/17 $360 call (IV 40.5%) — regular calendar	Spot moves past strikes.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-01-15 $300 call, sell 4/17 $370 call	Shares drop below $300.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $350/$340 put spread 4/17

Defined-risk downside play aligned with negative gamma and bearish flow.

Debit: $3.00-$4.00

Max loss: $7.00

BE: $347.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% max profit; cut if spot > $360.

Traders expecting continued weakness but want to hedge pin risk.

Covered Call

Buy shares at $352.82, sell $370 call 4/17

Income generation with upside capped at max pain, leveraging high IV.

Credit: $2.00-$3.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: $350.82

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $370; close if shares drop >5%.

Shareholders looking to reduce cost basis amid volatility.

Regular Calendar Spread

Sell 4/8 $350 call, buy 4/17 $360 call

Sell high IV (49.3%) near-term, buy lower IV (40.5%) farther out — +8.8 vol-pt edge.

Credit: $0.50-$1.00

Max loss: $9.50

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close when near-term IV crushes; adjust if spot moves beyond $360.

Vol traders capitalizing on term structure hump with multi-week thesis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $340 → Enter bear put spread $340/$330 4/17

IFSpot tags $370 and holds → Sell covered call $380 4/17

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $380 → Exit all bearish positions

EXITVIX spikes >30 (if data available) → Take profit on short premium

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bearish bias with negative gamma, but max pain pin upward creates range-bound tension. Invalidation: spot > $380. Regime favors selling premium around EM bounds and directional puts. Top plays: bear put spread for downside, covered call for income, calendar spread for vol edge — suited for different risk tolerances.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.