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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $97.10EOD only
Max Pain
$96.00
Next expiry Aug 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.92
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-1.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 13, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads near support
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $80 gamma flip
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 105.4% vs VIX 17.65%: elevated single-stock risk.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end at 98%, decays to ~89% by Oct, slight rise back-end.

📈IV high relative to VIX, rich premiums.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+21.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,977 (13.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $89, $100, $116; call wall $125, put floor $50-$80.

Verdict: Pinning likely near $89 due to positive GEX and max pain, but bearish flow may pull lower.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $89.00/$85.00 put spread
Sell 89/85 put spread to collect premium with defined risk
Credit: $1.10-$1.35
Max loss: $2.65
BE: $87.65
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $89 invalidation Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $85.00 put + sell $110.00 call
Sell 85 put and 110 call to capture IV contraction
Credit: $9.68-$11.83
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 73.17 / 121.83
Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; set stop-loss on break of range

Risk Alerts

!Spot above max pain with bearish flow increases downside risk.
!High put skew implies hedging pressure; watch $80 gamma flip.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.