thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $100.01EOD only
Max Pain
$100.00
Next expiry Aug 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.65
7.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 7, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 7, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 25, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness3 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Bearish put spreads
Invalidation: Sustained rally above resistance $99.81 or put-call ratio drops below 1.5
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 23.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 122% vs VIX 19 – significantly elevated, typical for high-vol name.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Short-term contango (1d to 7d) then backwardation; near-term IV elevated with skew.

📊IV avg 123% – attractive for premium, but bearish flow and spot below MP
📉Put-call volume ratio 2.54 – heavy put buying, dealer short gamma
📍Max pain cluster near $111-$107 for upcoming expiries

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-54.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,385 (12.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $119-$126, put floor $50-$75, max pain pins Jun26 $111, Jul2 $107, Jul10 $119.

Verdict: Increased pin risk near OPEX due to put OI concentration and dealer hedging; gamma flip at $75 is key downside level.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-31 $85.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $85.00 put
Sells near-term put, buys later put to profit from IV contraction and time decay while hedging downside.
Debit: $2.41-$2.94
Max loss: $2.94
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if spot rallies above $95 or IV collapses early.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $90.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $95.00 call
Bearish call diagonal exploiting IV term structure and time decay.
Debit: $0.41-$0.50
Max loss: $0.50
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if spot rises above $95 or IV spikes.

Risk Alerts

!High IV (122%) with bearish flow – risk of IV crush if spot reverses.
!Large negative GEX (-$54M) implies dealer hedging pressure.
!Spot 23% below max pain – potential for pinning toward $111-$107.
!Aggressive put buying and short gamma make premium selling highly risky.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.