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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $93.28EOD only
Max Pain
$100.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.65
8.2% from close
Price Gap
+6.72
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put credit spreads at $100 support
Invalidation: Spot closes below $100 or VIX above 25
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV significantly above VIX (104% vs 18.4)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Contango across expirations, near-term elevated due to pin risk

⚠️Put IV spikes near-term (494%) signaling hedging
📉Negative GEX indicates dealer short gamma

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-23.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,197 (14.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: High OI at $125-$139 calls and $100 puts; max pain pins $127 (6/18), $135 (6/26), $145 (7/2)

Verdict: Elevated pin risk - concentrated OI and short-term put IV skew

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $108.00/$95.00 put spread
Sell $108/$95 put spread to capture elevated premium.
Credit: $2.58-$3.16
Max loss: $9.84
BE: $104.84
Mgmt: Close if MSTR breaks $102.21.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $106.00/$95.00 put wing and $137.00/$145.00 call wing
Sell $106/$95 put and $137/$145 call wing.
Credit: $3.87-$4.73
Max loss: $6.27
BE: 101.27 / 141.73
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot moves. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer gamma short (-$23.4M) increases spot sensitivity
!Near-term put IV extreme (494%) suggests hedging spike
!Spot below max pain may drift towards $127 pin
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.