thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $103.84EOD only
Max Pain
$115.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.93
6.7% from close
Price Gap
+11.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks $90 support or VIX >20
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 18.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: GEX/flow aligned offsets spot-MP distance

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 110% vs VIX 18.6 - extreme premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Flat term structure with elevated near-term put skew

⚠️Bearish flow and negative GEX increase downside tail risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-45.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,246 (20.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $50-$75, call wall $116-$126, max pain $115

Verdict: Spot below max pain; high put OI near support increases pin risk at $115

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $115.00/$131.00 call spread
Sell $115/$131 call spread to profit from IV normalization and negative GEX.
Credit: $2.04-$2.50
Max loss: $13.50
BE: $117.50
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $108.8 or VIX >20.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $80.00/$70.00 put spread
Sell $80/$70 put spread for defined risk bullish bias.
Credit: $2.00-$2.45
Max loss: $7.55
BE: $77.55
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $90 support.
#3
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 call
Sell near-term $105 call, buy back-month $100 call to capture IV skew.
Debit: $6.37-$7.78
Max loss: $7.78
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $90 invalidation level.

Risk Alerts

!Negative GEX and bearish dealer flow suggest potential for sharp moves
!Spot 18% below max pain may accelerate toward support
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.