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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $85.33EOD only
Max Pain
$111.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.08
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+25.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
1.00
Balanced positioning
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Bear put spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $90 resistance
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 19.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 19.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 130% vs VIX 18.4, extreme stock-specific volatility.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: 0dte IV 26%; steep contango to 101% next week; flat thereafter.

🚨Dealer net short gamma -$79M amplifies moves.
📊0dte skew extreme: call IV 299%, put IV 253%.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-78.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,854 (2.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $50-$75, call wall $119, gamma flip $80.

Verdict: Spot ~19% below max pain $102; bearish gamma; pin risk near $75-$80.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $100.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $115.00 call
Sells front-month 100 call, buys back-month 115 call to capture IV crush and downside movement.
Credit: $0.61-$0.74
Max loss: $0.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $80 invalidation; hold through earnings for IV crush.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $75.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $70.00 put
Sells front-month 75 put, buys back-month 70 put to collect premium while capping downside.
Debit: $0.47-$0.58
Max loss: $0.58
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $80 invalidation; manage gamma near expiration.

Risk Alerts

!0dte expiry with extreme skew.
!Dealer short gamma $79M.
!Spot far below max pain.
!Put/call volume ratio 2.23 bearish.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.