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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $168.50EOD only
Max Pain
$135.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.18
7.2% from close
Price Gap
-33.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 21, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron Condor
Invalidation: If spot breaks below $100 support or above $118 resistance.
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 9.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (avg 100.4%) >5x VIX (19.5)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term backwardation with 3d IV 79.79% dipping to 75.88% at 31d then rising to 84.54% at 359d.

⚠️3d put IV at 150% signals extreme downside demand
📉Negative dealer gamma ($-32.1M) amplifies spot moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-32.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,354 (27.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentration $75-$90 (14,354 contracts); Call OI wall $116-$126 (max pain $115 June 26)

Verdict: Spot $104.34 below max pain; pin risk skewed to put side; gamma flip at $75.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $100.00/$95.00 put wing and $107.00/$113.00 call wing
Sell put/call wings to collect premium, wings at 95/113 limit tail risk
Credit: $3.80-$4.65
Max loss: $1.35
BE: 95.35 / 111.65
Mgmt: Stop-loss at loss of 1.35 credit; close before earnings if IV contracts

Risk Alerts

!IV contraction risk after earnings (if any)
!Negative dealer gamma increases slippage
!Spot below support at $100 could accelerate decline
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.